Jeff Tucker
@Jeff_TuckePrincipal Economist at Windermere Real Estate
Similar User
@EricFinnigan
@TaylorAMarr
@RDC_Economics
@AliWolfEcon
@RickPalaciosJr
@JohnWake
@lenkiefer
@mikesimonsen
@ParclLabs
@housing_alex
@dietz_econ
@HousingRalph
@LoganMohtashami
@ricksharga
@odetakushi
Self-recommending: two of the best voices on the housing market taking stock of where things stand today and where they're headed. @mflemingecon calls it "the end of the long cold winter" with apologies to Game of Thrones.
In the latest episode of the Top of Mind podcast, @mikesimonsen sits down with @mflemingecon, chief economist at First American Financial Corporation, to talk about the major market dynamics that will shape the real estate market in 2025. hubs.ly/Q02Wk-1p0
More on the one gray lining in today's sterling GDP report: real residential investment is back down to roughly pre-pandemic levels. Not what we'd like to see in a country with a major housing shortage, where home prices have risen 50% in 5 years.
One of the only gloomy spots in today's GDP report: Residential investment fell at a 5.1% annualized rate. Builders, especially multifamily, are suffering under persistently high interest rates.
Great thread summarizing today's strong GDP numbers. The 🇺🇸 economic boom continued in Q3. Real consumption was especially strong.
Another strong GDP report (2.8% in Q3) pushes real GDP even further above the pre-pandemic forecast.
Looking at home prices in Case-Shiller today vs 5 years ago, the Seattle MSA is up 55%; the US is up 54%; the Portland MSA is up 38%. Both SEA & PDX are still down a bit from their 2022 peaks, according to this data, but Seattle's up 5.2% YoY, and PDX 0.8% YoY.
4.0%: The annualized rate of home price growth in August, according to today's Case-Shiller data release from CoreLogic. This was a surprising uptick after a consistent cooldown in price growth for most of the year. Just one month of data, but still interesting!
In my latest "numbers to know" video, I dug into the surprisingly soft existing-home sales results for September. I suspect they'll pick up in October, based on the strong pending sales data I highlighted earlier today.
Windermere’s Principal Economist Jeff Tucker looks at September’s ‘disappointing’ existing-home sales report and discusses some of the factors impacting the numbers. inman.com/2024/10/28/exi…
Price cuts tell the tale of market dynamics this year. True in Western Washington as well: sellers really hit a soft patch in the middle of the year, so we saw more price reductions, sooner than normal. But in Aug, Sep, Oct, demand firmed back up.
Price reductions tell a similar tale of market stability. Essentially unchanged for 12 weeks now, 39.5% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. 6/7
Reports of the demise of the existing-home market have been exaggerated. We also saw a bump in pending sales in Western Washington in September. I credited it to the drop in mortgage rates through mid-September, but it seems to have held up into October...
Home sales are holding steady and consistently above the last two years. 59,000 new pending single family this week. We count 9% more homes going into contract this week than last year at this time. Mortgage payments are climbing, still 6% less than last year. 4/7
Inflation, combined with September’s strong jobs report, suggests that the Fed might be rethinking how quickly to cut the Federal Funds Rate, says Windermere’s Principal Economist Jeff Tucker. inman.com/2024/10/17/num…
Interesting check-in on some major Seattle employers: even as Amazon returns to 5 days in the office, other local tech firms like Zillow reiterate their commitment to remote work. geekwire.com/2024/remote-hy… via @GeekWire
Great chart of the Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase application index. Even with this week's downturn, we are still seeing YoY gains in purchase apps after about 120 straight weeks of YoY declines, that began in Q2 of 2022.
Mortgage apps for home purchases are barely running above their year-earlier levels even though rates are more than 1 pp lower than they were at this time last year. Rates for the 30-year fixed mortgage ticked up to 6.52% last week in the MBA survey, the highest in a month
United States Trends
- 1. ICBM 101 B posts
- 2. Good Thursday 21,8 B posts
- 3. Dnipro 34,4 B posts
- 4. #ThursdayMotivation 4.067 posts
- 5. Happy Friday Eve N/A
- 6. #21Nov 1.994 posts
- 7. $DUB 6.982 posts
- 8. #thursdayvibes 2.733 posts
- 9. #ThursdayThoughts 2.792 posts
- 10. Nikki Haley 27,5 B posts
- 11. #Wordle1251 N/A
- 12. Adani 669 B posts
- 13. Bitcoin 622 B posts
- 14. Juice WRLD 23,2 B posts
- 15. Happy Birthday Nerissa 7.254 posts
- 16. Ellen DeGeneres 67,4 B posts
- 17. Aunt Jemima N/A
- 18. Thomas Sowell 9.660 posts
- 19. Biden DOJ 10,6 B posts
- 20. SWARM 7.398 posts
Who to follow
-
Eric Finnigan
@EricFinnigan -
Taylor Marr
@TaylorAMarr -
Realtor.com Economics
@RDC_Economics -
Ali Wolf
@AliWolfEcon -
Rick Palacios Jr.
@RickPalaciosJr -
John Wake
@JohnWake -
📈 Len Kiefer 📊
@lenkiefer -
Mike Simonsen 🐉
@mikesimonsen -
Parcl Labs
@ParclLabs -
Alex Thomas
@housing_alex -
Robert Dietz
@dietz_econ -
Ralph B. McLaughlin
@HousingRalph -
Logan Mohtashami
@LoganMohtashami -
Rick Sharga
@ricksharga -
Odeta Kushi
@odetakushi
Something went wrong.
Something went wrong.