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According to our models at the end of February: 1. S&P 500 largest deviation above fair value in history. And therefore: 2. S&P 500 lowest forward looking return estimate in history. What a time to be alive... and sell SPX to a bag-holder. #TYGBLAF
Get to work now Elon. Fun is over. Make @realDonaldTrump a "deficit hawk" and interest rates will collapse. Don't even need to talk about the Fed....
From CBO, federal deficit hits a record $1.8 T. This is fiscal malpractice when growth exceeds 3%. What are we going to do when the economy turns? Both parties are to blame. cbo.gov/publication/60…
2024 is now the weakest on record for both Existing Home Sales and Pending Home Sales despite mortgage rates falling more than 1.25% from the high last October. #TYGBLAF
Believe by @Yellowcard One of the best tributes to the first responders on 9/11. It hits hard to this day every time I listen to it. youtube.com/watch?v=6ZREjB…
I wonder why we never talk about this chart anymore... Fed Balance Sheet vs. S&P 500:
I was today years old when I learned that @hussmanjp has never actually spoken with Jeremy Grantham. Mind blown. Gents, I implore you to pick up the phone before it's too late. Reference 11:30 in this video interview with Grantham: youtube.com/watch?v=az5Ujf…
How late is the Fed to cut rates? Judging by the unemployment rate, their last move a year ago should have been a cut, not a hike! At this point in the 2008 cycle, the Fed had already cut rates 13 times (0.25% increments) for a total of 3.25%! @biancoresearch #TYGBLAF
The unemployment rate today has the exact same trajectory as the 2008 GFC. It’s probably nothing. #TYGBLAF
The shows clear as day that the reason the Democrats have an open border policy is to import voters
Great interview gents! I especially liked the part on insider transactions. I don't follow insider buys/sells as a regular part of my research process, so hearing from Jesse about what's happening right now was a real eye opener for me.
Really enjoyed this interview with @jessefelder whose warning of investors "extrapolating the unsustainable" in expectation of a "Platinum-locks economy" is well worth heeding youtu.be/M5UdRAd3KvI
Uhhhh guys…? Long duration credit spreads are at the tightest level since 2005. I’m not so sure we should be pricing-to-perfection with leading indicators licking the floor. But YOLO amiright @biancoresearch !? #TYGBLAF
Well, well, well, Look who joined the party... Existing home sales now worst on record in addition to pending home sales. #TYGBLAF
Got to hang out with @MebFaber and the Cambria crew to ring the closing bell at the S&P 500 options pit @CBOE So cool.
Hey @GuyDealership, I track my private party car values each quarter on kbb, and they took a significant hit in the last 3 months. Any idea what’s going on? My cars: 2016 Honda Odyssey (-$3,596) -21% 2016 Ram 1500 Crew Cab (-$4,239) -17%
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DC
@dimit -
Kevin C. Smith, CFA
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fred hickey
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hedgopia
@hedgopia -
13D Research & Strategy
@WhatILearnedTW -
Variant Perception
@VrntPerception -
Mikael Sarwe
@MikaelSarwe -
Ed Clissold
@edclissold -
Chris Carolan $=1/∞
@spiralcal -
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle -
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Diego Parrilla
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Ned Davis Research
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