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In other more important news, it’s the weekend and whatever your worries, it’s time to forget them! Join us for some dolce vita over at @MiamKitty
EU is just such a clown show
#Germany Warns of Gas Refill Risk as EU Taps Deeper Into Reserves Gas storage withdrawals increased amid cold, windless weather Summer refills will be tough at current prices: Germany’s INES bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Lots of anxiety around Trump’s policies and their inflationary impact. First off, let’s recall that the Smoot-Hawley Act was associated (wrongly so) with a depression and not exactly inflation. But even the numbers don’t stack-up to this level of peak inflation anxiety. Tax…
Great preview by Oliver
Retail sales & IP data out shortly. Two releases that often leave analysts with egg on their faces. But some good reasons to expect some weak numbers. Solid auto and gasoline sales likely lifted the headline, but recent hurricanes point to soft control sales (1/5)
Wouldn’t be very fitting, now that JPOW started signaling the possibility of a Dec pause in rate cuts just yesterday, that he gets slapped with a big Retail Sales miss today? Would also be a good rug pull on back of the massive positioning swings in DXY and US front and belly…
lol JPOW growing a pair now that Trump is in town… probability of Dec cut crashed down to below 60%
Trump would make a grave mistake by picking Lutnick over Bessent for Treasury. This is not only a push away from Lutnick story, he needs a pragmatic who understands bond market investors to balance out Lighthizer/Navarro. Lutnick is neither.
JPOW must be kidding when he says inflation is heading to 2% but sometimes it’s a bumpy road
yes to all Dan’s points
There's also deregulation - which is entirely deflationary. It very simply reduces the cost of doing business. I think the biggest wildcard is Elon/Vivek's DOGE though. The potential result is a massive decline in Treasury issuance, freeing up capital for real investments.
I have issues with the prevalent narrative that Trump policies will be inflationary, and before you ask, not only because all the clowneconomists are signing editorials to proclaim it a certainty. From a practitioner pov - and not that of a theoretical bullshiter - I already…
It’s been 2 years now that hundreds leave X each week with ceremonial messages heralding a new awakening on this or that app, only to return the following weeks without ceremonial protocol posting their usual analysis. Can’t take these turds seriously whoever they are.
Most are wrong in dismissing @DOGE and @elonmusk chances of actually delivering very substantial cuts in the Federal monumental spending waste. This is a system survival issue and current interest costs have crossed the survival alarm threshold. Cuts are coming and they will be…
Fed’s 2% inflation target is no more. It’s a form of gaslighting at this stage. Economy is annualizing 2.7% ish PCE and there is some right tail risks. 5y5y fwd breakevens is 2.59% 5y10y is 2.57% Dec cut odds are 77% then odds of cut in Jan is just a quarter, then March is a…
This is what she is referring to, from a report out this morning by Mericle/Abecassis
I'm surprised this didn't get more airtime: Dallas Fed's Logan, "... I see substantial signs that the neutral rate has increased in recent years, and some hints that it could be very close to where the fed funds rate is now." dallasfed.org/news/speeches/…
Please take the Guardian with you…😂😂
Poor DoJ attorneys. Here I'll help. This is a list of places they can move to that don't have extradition treaties with the US : Afghanistan Belarus Iran Laos Libya Mongolia Montenegro Nepal Qatar Yemen
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