Mikael Sarwe
@MikaelSarweHead of Nordea Equity Strategy & Quant. In grey zone between macro & market strategy. If you can't show it in a chart then it's not true. Views are my own.
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Thinking about it... Maybe Sweden needs -0.5% repo rate to balance the 77% effective marginal tax rate (income, payroll, consumption taxes)?
🇺🇸 Core inflation on the high side the third month in a row and high compensation plans in NFIB. Add tariffs, tax cuts, labour force effects from deportations.... Hmmm... Perhaps time to dust off this golden oldie again...
🌍🇺🇸 America First... or let's rephrase it: What's good for the US is not necessarily good for us
🇺🇸 Massive fiscal stimulus since 2016 (viewed as 4% unemployment rate normally = primary budget surplus but has been big deficit) was made possible by Republican sweep 2016 and then Democrat sweep 2020. What will happen if there is no sweep? Won't there be a stimulus deadlock?
🇺🇸 At 4% unemployment there should be a primary federal budget surplus. That has not at all been the case during the past two Presidents. Can reckless fiscal policy go on forever without any increase for very low risk premiums in all markets (gov bond, corp bond, equity)?
🇸🇪 Service PMI higher than expected but employment part clearly signals that companies are in "lay-off" mode. Unemployment looks set to increase over the winter.
🇺🇸 At 4% unemployment there should be a primary federal budget surplus. That has not at all been the case during the past two Presidents. Can reckless fiscal policy go on forever without any increase for very low risk premiums in all markets (gov bond, corp bond, equity)?
We got state-level unemployment data today, which one can use to construct a synthetic national unemployment rate. Using this smoother and arguably more reliable series, it turns out that unemployment rose in September. Oops!
🇺🇸 The NFIB small business survey remained very downbeat with actual sales changes falling from a low level, actual earnings changes particularly gloomy and uncertainty higher than ever.
🇺🇸 Challenger data: Is it time to expect that initial claims will start rising? Looks like it.
🇸🇪 Services PMI not really consistent with the consensus view that the Swedish recession is over.
🇨🇳 The short-squeeze of a century ongoing. Rotten industrial profit numbers show that the only part of the economy that has seen some stability lately seems to be sinking again. Still waiting for the "true" bazooka...
🇸🇪 Mixed NIER survey. Exporters more negative. Consumers happier but still not interested in any major purchases currently. Retailers big hopes for improvement but recessionary current sales. My GDP model remains more negative than the consensus forecast.
🇺🇸 The Fed and Bloomberg consensus have unemployment at 4.4% early 2025. Consumers are implicitly forecasting 5.3% and usually get it fairly right. Not sure about the other two forecasters...
🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence basically unchanged, but lurking below the surface is this telling part...
🇺🇸 Some story on Bloomberg that higher CPI than PPI inflation "bodes well for S&P 500 margins". Just wanted to point out that the historic relationship actually is the total opposite - margins tend to fall when CPI increases faster than PPI...
🇺🇸 Higher core CPI than expected. And shelter simply doesn't behave like a lot of commentators have been expecting (or perhaps hoping), which I have warned about regularly. I still find that the rent indicators I follow on average aren't yet in line with a major rent slowdown.
🇺🇸 NFIB small business survey signals continued weak sales and profit recession.
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