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@KatjaGrace
@jkcarlsmith
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@EvanHub
@robbensinger
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@lukeprog
I am in New York until Tuesday! Currently lots of free time Saturday and Monday. DM me if you want to meet up. These days particularly interested in thinking about how to use AI as research/thinking/writing assistants, and how to talk well publicly about AGI being a big deal.
The results in "LLMs Are Superhuman Forecasters" don't hold when given another set of forecasting questions. I used their codebase (models, prompts, retrieval, etc.) to evaluate a new set of 324 questions—all opened after November 2023. Findings: Their Brier score: .195 Crowd…
We've created a demo of an AI that can predict the future at a superhuman level (on par with groups of human forecasters working together). Consequently I think AI forecasters will soon automate most prediction markets. demo: forecast.safe.ai blog: safe.ai/blog/forecasti…
I'm giving in to market forces and running my Quantitative Trading Bootcamp a couple more times! In Berkeley August 19-22 and in NYC September 2-5. I had a blast comparing notes with @patio11 on the best ways to teach trading and am adding some fun new twists
Launching the Complex Systems podcast today. First episode: I interviewed Ricki Heicklen (@tradegal_) on how she teaches trading. We talked about comparative pedagogical game design, real-life problems in trading equities/derivatives, etc. complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/teach…
I disagree with Tracing on many things, but this article summarizes David Gerard's story better than anything else I've seen. (which includes years of vandalism of the LessWrong Wikipedia page and basically anyone else I know who has ever entered the gaze of Wikipedia)
New: Read the story of a decade-long propaganda campaign by the Forrest Gump of the internet—a Wikipedia admin who was once Yudkowsky’s strongest soldier—set against the backdrop of the collapse of the semi-unified Internet ethos of the ‘90s and ‘00s tracingwoodgrains.com/p/reliable-sou…
How AGI companies proliferate:
I’ve now finished my series “Otherness and control in the age of AGI." It's about how agents with different values should relate to each other, and about the ethics of seeking and sharing power. Links to full PDF, full audio, and online versions below, + screenshots of summary.
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Who to follow
-
Katja Grace 🔍
@KatjaGrace -
Joe Carlsmith
@jkcarlsmith -
Ajeya Cotra
@ajeya_cotra -
Evan Hubinger
@EvanHub -
Rob Bensinger ⏹️
@robbensinger -
Nate Soares ⏹️
@So8res -
Kat Woods ⏸️
@Kat__Woods -
Siméon
@Simeon_Cps -
Julia Wise 🔸
@juliadwise -
Michael Aird
@michael__aird -
Nuño Sempere
@NunoSempere -
Alex Turner
@Turn_Trout -
Andrew Critch (h/acc)
@AndrewCritchPhD -
Daniel Filan research-tweets
@dfrsrchtwts -
Luke Muehlhauser
@lukeprog
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