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Salut les amis, je boucle un projet et il se peut que cela intéresse certains d'entre vous. Je parle de 150 jeux auxquels j'ai joué dans ma vie ici : boardgamegeek.com/collection/use… C'est tantôt court, tantôt long, parfois redondant et souvent personnel, mais j'en suis plutôt satisfait.
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By the old left/right metrics (which I accept have been massively disrupted) I am left wing. Not hard left, but definitely left of centre. However, I believe the left in the West has taken a dangerous and self-defeating turn, embracing a form of identity politics that is…
Hahaha best line of the night :D
On the edge of glory. GL everyone, it's been a hoot! 🫡 youtube.com/watch?v=jZtgNc…
La grande magouille républicaine des sondages en PA a commencé. Comme en 2022, il faut s'attendre à un spam des sondages pro-R à présent, et ça commence très fort, avec American Greatness (sponsor R) qui élimine carrément la ville de Philadelphie de l'état pour passer d'un…
I swear we're not all that dumb in France 🤣 What's amazing to me is that despite his rather brutal attack of the market, he could quite easily have sold at a decent 1+ million profit or so. The market would not have crashed, there was demand for Trump and the polls backed it up.
Since everyone is doing it, here's my map. Nothing very original about it, small/medium polling error in Harris favor but not enough to overcome Arizona deficit. Trump gains among latinos (border talk + not very willing to vote for a women vs Trump machismo personality), not…
This is absolutely spot on. And it explains the surprising Selzer poll, because she polls forwards and not backwards, not making any assumptions about the electorate.
Lately @NateSilver has been arguing that pollsters are "herding" —tweaking or hiding their results to avoid publishing outliers. I don't know any (reputable) pollsters who do this. And I think the problem here is Nate making a simple math/stats error 🧵
Maybe the signs aren't so little now 😇
There are some little signs of a turn left in the region though : NYT not herding and putting PA consistenly at +4 while not being kind to Harris otherwise That +5R Kansas poll That +3R Ohio poll A few strong NE-02 polls
Fredi down, OG Frenchie up! 🥳
Haha Harris qui sort les hologrammes de Mélenchon. C'est fini là, elle ne peut plus perdre :D
I am told the Harris team is planning a produced livestream show for Election Eve - a large scale GOTV effort in all seven battleground states - with eight "interconnected" and “simultaneous” rallies for Monday night.
"Oh that's bad" > Records began 130 years ago So it's never had a snowless October in recorded history
Mount Fuji experienced its first snowless October in 130 years.
lagrandeconversation.com/societe/les-re… Excellent article par @MxSba qui fait un bon résumé du problème boomer. Je vais essayer de vous faire un petit thread pour ceux qui n'aiment pas cliquer sur un article.
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BREAKING: ROBINHOOD $HOOD LAUNCHES BETTING ON THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION THROUGH EVENT CONTRACTS. Oh. My. Goodness. The rate of innovation by this company is beyond incredible… 2 things on this: 1.) Robinhood JUST introduced a new desktop trading platform, index options, and…
Génial les R qui s’excitent là dessus alors que la fraude vient de leur camp 😅
Aucune. Action. De. Lutte. Contre. Le. RC. N'est. Possible. Dans. Un. Pays. Avec. Des. Ecolos. Contre. Le Nucléaire. Le Train. Le Fret Fluvial. Les OGM. Les Méga-Bassines. Le Progrès. La Croissance. La Science. La Liberté. L'Humanité.
Aucune. Adaptation. N’est. Possible. Dans. Un. Monde. À. +3,1 degres.
States ranked by advanced degree %. Blue is safe D, Red is safe R, Yellow for swing states. Didn't expect such a strong correlation, this is almost perfect. Feels like a very good sign for blue PA and red NV.
“Actually, $70 parking will inspire a generation.” One of the worst takes I’ve ever seen on this garbage site.
A story that illuminates why abundance liberals are going to struggle with some progressive activists: In March, I gave a talk on climate tech at a senior center - they loved it! In Q&A, a woman asked “how do we get people to do their part + dry their clothes on the line?” 1/7
So that's interesting. It seems this market was sponsored by "Nelk Boys". So we could imagine a world where instead of traders paying fees to keep @Polymarket afloat, instead the money would come from market sponsors, interested in either self-promotion or search for information.
What will Trump say during the Joe Rogan podcast tomorrow? Trans • 63% chance Tampon • 27% Crypto • 34% Cold Plunge • 9% Fake News • 68% Weed • 25% Alien • 69% Dark MAGA • 17% Melania • 35% Epstein • 32% FBI • 62% Weave • 26% Vaccine • 50% Kennedy • 82% Pocahontas…
Interesting article. Of course all of it is anecdotal data, but I could very well see a thesis in there for the Sun Belt vs Rust Belt divide that some pollsters are seeing (e.g. NYT having PA+4 Harris and AZ +5 Trump twice). The article describes a couple or two where the wife…
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Gaeten Dugas
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LanceUpper
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tenadome
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50 Pence
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Star Spangled Gamblers
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