Eric Lascelles
@RBCGAMChiefEconChief Economist for RBC Global Asset Management Inc. @RBCGAMNews and economic commentator. For disclosures: https://t.co/ZhGFSFG4Pd
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Japan’s October election result reared a loss for its Liberal Democratic Party. This is incrementally yen negative and risks delaying Bank of Japan monetary tightening until the dust has cleared. rbcgam.com/en/ca/article/…
Have markets struck gold with, well, gold? We mine into the recent surge in gold prices: bit.ly/40uWtzE
After a surge in immigration, Canada plans to slow population growth. The government expects a population decline in 2025 and 2026, though modest growth may continue. If the population stalls, higher productivity will be needed to sustain the economy. bit.ly/3YM61Vy
The latest UN forecast now sees the world population peaking at 10.29 billion people in 2084, down from 10.43 billion in 2086 - 140 million fewer people! With global fertility rates dropping since the pandemic, we think this estimate may still be too high. rbcgam.com/en/ca/article/…
Canada now leads the way in the rate-cutting race, with the Bank of Canada delivering a sizeable 50-basis-point cut last month. We lean toward another 50-basis-point cut to close out 2024. rbcgam.com/en/ca/article/…
Developed-world household savings rates are above their pre-pandemic levels as inflation and higher interest rates push people to save and pay down debt instead of spending. The U.S. stands out as an outlier – why? bit.ly/4fvrN5p
All eyes are on the U.S. as it decides its next president. We share our insights, and what betting markets anticipate. We cover other economic stories: a spike in bond yields, Canada’s 50-point rate cut, and much more in this week’s #Macromemo. bit.ly/3NNx2l8
Bond yields rebounded on a resilient U.S. economy (and election expectations), with markets scaling back on rate-cut expectations. Yields have gone from too low to potentially too high. rbcgam.com/en/ca/article/…
The U.S. economy remains resilient. Despite last month’s hurricane impact and a resultant slight dip in job growth, overall sentiment remains upbeat. rbcgam.com/en/ca/article/…
Canadian economic data has improved lately, with some good job numbers and a marginally better Business Outlook Survey. rbcgam.com/en/ca/article/…
From a geopolitical perspective the distinct risk is that oil prices rise, though we don’t expect an explosion higher nor persistently elevated levels. rbcgam.com/en/ca/article/…
The U.S. job market expanded in September and upward revisions to prior months changed the entire complexion of the labour market. rbcgam.com/en/ca/article/…
Last month, Chinese policymakers announced several initiatives in an effort to help revitalize its stagnant economy. rbcgam.com/en/ca/article/…
From a struggling housing market to a contracting money supply, all is clearly not well in China. However, concerns may be overblown. Official GDP still tracks nearly 5% growth for 2024 and policymakers are delivering stimulus, with more likely to come. rbcgam.com/en/ca/article/…
Internationally – apart from Germany, which has struggled recently – the economic consensus is indeed that the risk of recession is now significantly lower for developed nations than at almost any point over the prior two years. bit.ly/3UcKO4K
U.S. economic data shone throughout September and the Fed is cutting rates, allowing us to further lower our assessed risk of recession. rbcgam.com/en/ca/article/…
After initial excitement about the prospect of quicker and larger rate cuts coming from the Fed, markets now seem to be adopting a more measured view – we think this is the right stance. bit.ly/3Nv7J7u
Recent hurricanes in the U.S. have caused catastrophic damage, affecting countless lives. We dig into the economic impact. rbcgam.com/en/ca/article/…
This week’s #MacroMemo explores the economic impact of hurricanes, why a U.S. recession seems less likely, and cooled expectations for big Fed rate cuts. We also look at China’s economy amid concerns and stimulus and end with several Canadian thoughts. bit.ly/3UdJYol
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