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NoBull Economics Consumer Research

@NBExRR

Analyzing consumers, chain restaurants & the retail industry Sign up for our free newsletter: https://t.co/G8HmGBc04c

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Monthly #Commodity Dashboard October 2024 The RR #CommodityCost Index (wholesale prices weighted by a typical #QSR food basket) increased +6.6 y/y during October. Concerning y/y price increases in October included: Milk +35.7%; Fresh Vegetables +15%; Potatoes +12.5%; Cheese…

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#ConsumerSpending Data September 2024 Read More -> nobulleconomics.com/consumer-spend… September’s #PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased +5.3% y/y (including services) while September’s #RetailSales (excluding services) increased just +0.2% y/y as #consumers continue a…

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Is #War Good for the Markets??? With things heating up in the #Ukraine, one would expect the markets to tank. However, a look at #StockMarket performance during times of war post-1926 provides a useful perspective.

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Interestingly, #PublicSquare achieved 1MM consumer accounts from launch faster than #AirBnB, #Twitter, & #Spotify. more on this -> nobulleconomics.com/paying-attenti…


Costco’s October Comps +5.1% & E-Com +19.3% #Costco reported a +7.2% y/y increase in net sales for October (+8.2% when adjusting for a pull forward in sales from the abnormal consumer activity associated with the hurricanes & port strikes in September). Read More ->…

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G7 Vs. BRICs 10 Insight into the economic struggle between the West & East begins with an exploration of the different #economic blocks represented by #G7 & #BRICs. This framework also helps to explain a lot of the current geopolitical tensions. Read More ->…

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#Amazon 3Q24 Amazon’s continued focus on low prices, fast delivery & essentials has resonated with consumers concerned about economic uncertainties... READ MORE -> nobulleconomics.com/amazon-3q24-gr…

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October Chain Restaurant Promotional Analysis Sometimes all that’s important for our monthly promotional #analysis is to look at the dominant deal & in October that would be #Chilis 3 For Me “Better Than Fast Food” $10.99 Smashburger offer which is currently framing the…

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Hardee's 2024 The chain remains challenged to leverage a solid brand proposition (at least offered in modern markets) into in-line system sales growth by increasing its relevancy with a younger and higher-income demo that we believe would appreciate its retro vibe if only they…

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Carl's Jr. 2024 Read More -> nobulleconomics.com/carls-jr-2024-… A changing macro #environment requires #CarlsJr to pivot towards value and a broader demo without compromising its core brand equity represented by fun monster burgers for the masses.

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Recent U.S. Political & Economic History It’s all about the #economy, stupid… A look back over the last 60+ years reveals a massive number of wars, economic crises, and associated #political upheavals. The one constant has been the steady growth in federal debt levels to fund…

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Restaurant Research’s Capital Markets Dashboard for November 2024 The market continues to parse expectations for consumer spending & 3Q results while it also assesses political & currency risks. #QSR #stocks did well in October (median up +2.5%) as early reporting suggests that…

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October 2024 Beige Book: Improving Economic Outlook Read More -> nobulleconomics.com/october-2024-b… On balance, #economic activity has little changed in nearly all Districts since early September, though 2 Districts reported modest growth. The short-lived #dockworkersstrike caused only…


No surprise that #Chilis saw strong 3Q results after most recent store visit. - quick/friendly service - large portions - prices are beginning to look similar to QSR

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Jersey Mike's Due-Diligence Visit In preparation of our annual #JerseyMikes report we visited a local store & would like to include a couple takeaways: - lively staff more than happy to converse with customers - many individuals ordering for multiple people

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CAZ Investments Market Outlook Read More -> nobulleconomics.com/caz-investment… According to CAZ Investment’s 2Q report: There appears to be a widely held belief that #interestrates coming down will heal all wounds and economic issues will go away in short order. Make no mistake, rates…

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Although this day seemed like it may never come, #Wingstop's #stock has fallen ~-20% due to its profits missing estimates & elevated chicken wing prices. The company still remains in amazing shape as it saw positive comp growth & raised its development guidance during the…

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Restaurant Industry Traffic Down Post COVID Read More -> nobulleconomics.com/the-restaurant… Something seems to have changed the #restaurant industry after covid in a permanent way. Nobody is attempting to explain the secular shift that has led to a material traffic decline across all…

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