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John Philpott

@JobsEconomist

Economist and labour market analyst, former director of Employment Policy Institute and former Chief Economic Adviser at the CIPD

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Such are the febrile times we in live that #HuwPill sparks a public furore simply by stating the blindingly obvious. God knows the reaction if an economist proposed an institutional policy mechanism designed to encourage pay/price restraint and so avoid hiking interest rates.

People need to accept they are poorer, says Bank of England economist bbc.in/3L0cFPS



Just noticed this Paul, Your contribution to understanding of labour market statistics has been immense. Good luck for the future and enjoy the lie ins. Cheers John

Though I can do without the 7am start. Might help if the spreadsheets were there at 7 so it could be automated....



I was born in 1957, the year this data set begins. At the time Tory PM Harold Macmillan praised rising living standards with the now famous phrase “we’ve never had it so good.” Bet Boris Johnson doesn’t say “we’ve never had it so bad.”

Blooming hell. @OBR_UK says it expects real household disposable income - about the most comprehensive measure of our standard of living - to fall this year at the fastest rate since comparable records began in the 1950s. Grim.

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Calls for UK pay restraint fill me with nostalgia, though I doubt the ultra flexible labour market needs them.


John Philpott Reposted

I'm hoping to hire two labour economists to work on ERC project 'labour policies for inclusive growth' - monopsony + technology + immigration and stuff. Pls tell anyone you think might be interested. Here is the more senior position jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/57…


The business case for flexible working is very organisation/job/role specific rather than universally applicable, which is why employer practice often frustrates employee preference. It would be a policy error to move beyond a right to request. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…


Very sad news.

R.I.P Howard Archer



Good point. Confirms that the Osborne job cuts were excessive - crudely ideologically driven as I argued at the time - so part of what we are seeing now is a readjustment to a level of public sector employment consistent with effective service delivery.

My Times piece for tomorrow. Rising public sector employment, which started before the pandemic, has reversed many of the cuts during the austerity years, and we seem to have accepted the need for a permanently bigger state: thetimes.co.uk/article/a-boom…



All these pre-broadcast interview teasers from Duchess of Sussex suggest she might want to be UK Chancellor of the Exchequer one day


Better but underscores the need for the stimulus package

Payroll employment rises by 379,000 in February; unemployment rate changes little at 6.2% go.usa.gov/vrK #JobsReport #BLSdata



John Philpott Reposted

Payroll employment rises by 379,000 in February; unemployment rate changes little at 6.2% go.usa.gov/vrK #JobsReport #BLSdata


No immediate ‘Biden Bounce’ in job numbers. Much policy work to be done.

Unemployment rate falls to 6.3% in January; payroll employment changes little (+49,000) go.usa.gov/vrK #JobsReport #BLSdata



Very disappointing - even the jobs market exits the Trump era in a mood of depression. Biden has a really tough policy challenge ahead if unemployment is to return to pre-COVID rate in the next couple of years

Payroll employment declines by 140,000 in December; unemployment rate unchanged at 6.7% go.usa.gov/vrK #JobsReport #BLSdata



Good news, though the afternoon of Christmas Eve means there won’t be too much scrutiny of the deal for a few days. Hope this isn’t one of those festive presents that looks good when first opened but loses its lustre come January.


Still a long way to go to make up for COVID-19 hit on jobs, hopefully a vaccine will aid a faster recovery in 2021

Payroll employment rises by 245,000 in November; unemployment rate edges down to 6.7% go.usa.gov/vrK #JobsReport #BLSdata



Seems a tad harsh singling BBC out on this one. George Osborne won the post financial crisis economic narrative with the daft ‘maxed out credit card’ metaphor, and most people, including seasoned commentators, bought it hook, line and sinker. No wonder journalists follow suit.

Household analogies like 'maxing out the credit card' are intuitive but misrepresent the economic reality, badly, to the public. Today we've published a letter from 24 economists, calling on the BBC to avoid using these analogies in its reporting: ippr.org/blog/economist…



John Philpott Reposted

What do our scenarios mean for growth and unemployment? ⬆️ Upside: GDP falls 10.6% in 2020; unemployment peaks at 5.1% in 2021Q2 ↔️ Central: GDP falls 11.3% in 2020; unemployment peaks at 7.5% in 2021Q2 ⬇️ Downside: GDP falls 12% in 2020; unemployment peaks at 11% in 2022Q1

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OBR central projection of 7.5% peak in jobless rate is actually quite encouraging but comes with caveats. OBR suggests unemployment may already be muchhigher than circa 5% and in worst case could peak at 11%. Much depends on what happens when furlough scheme is finally withdrawn.

Unemployment could rise to 2.6 million people next year, warns Chancellor Rishi Sunak bbc.in/2UZLD1D



John Philpott Reposted

We are seeking a Head of Labour Market Economics. Shaping and promoting our thinking on economic and labour market policy, apply before 7 December to help us deliver impact, and lead our internal team of economic researchers. learningandwork.org.uk/about-us/work-…


The battle may not yet be over, but this news feels like D-Day in the fight against #COVID19.

Covid-19 vaccine more than 90% effective in preventing disease in preliminary results, says drugs firm Pfizer bbc.in/3eFAnAw



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