Donald Cayton
@de_caytonDuke MS Statistical Science 25’ | UNC 21’ | creator of Game Models and the MBAPPE impact rating
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For anyone interested in what goes into the MBAPPE model, I'm going to echo the about section here! MBAPPE (Multi-League Bayesian Adjusted Penalized Plus-Minus Estimate) is a Bayesian RAPM with SPM prior. What is that? Thread Below📝 (1/10)
It's finally here! MBAPPE ratings are live for the 24-25 season at gamemodelsfootball.com/mbappe-ratings, and will be updated weekly through the season. Noisy now, but will become more stable as sample size grows. Also, the MBAPPE table and player profiles on the site have new looks!
Sample size is small. but early 24-25 MBAPPE results, Nicolas Jackson is showing further improvement and is among the top 10 forwards in Europe 👀
We're onto video #6 for the @Footy_Insights_ channel, focusing on Nicolas Jackson. He's been the subject of much conversation, so I did a deep-dive on: - Promising off-ball movement & link-up play - Shooting technique - Theorizing about finishing ability youtube.com/watch?v=VrZkc8…
Code behind the testing exercises I've done here! Also, MBAPPE player data (as CSV) is available in the repo github.com/dcayton/mbappe…
After weeks of tweaking and testing, made longer by the start of the school year, an updated MBAPPE model is now live! The ratings from 17-18 until 23-24 are improved and can be found at gamemodelsfootball.com/mbappe-ratings Also, I've outlined the new features in the thread below!
Battle of two of Europe's best CBs tomorrow. An interesting comparison, as Hancko has less defensive impact but his ability to create and progress bolsters his rating. On the other hand, Tah's central CB role perhaps leaves some offensive impact on the table.
Such an awesome and complete resource for the field with so much to dig into. And very thankful that MBAPPE can be included!
Guide to Sports Analytics (v5) The latest version of the guide is here and it now totals over 1,000 resources covering R, Python, SQL and more. New accounts to follow, tutorials and blogs along with a new “how to get started” and “articles” tab !! ⬇️ docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u…
Quick look at how major European leagues stack up against each other, ordered by league average MBAPPE. Left is a 'league-median' player. Right is the best individual season during the covered seasons. Almost perfectly in line with how I mentally perceive league strength too!
The updated model captures elite seasons well and it's namesake holds the record for best rating using it. That Mbappé season was only 24 full 90s, but his impact was literally off the charts.
Need a strong deep midfielder not playing at an elite level already? Talk of Zubimendi and the few similar profiles to him on the market had me thinking. However, some of these already moved this window. [Criteria is CM/DM w/ > .03 O/D MBAPPE, > 10% PRG%, and > 1% INT%/TKL%]
Toying around with plotting an aging curve for MBAPPE, and happy to find that it exists. However, the late peak end (33 or so) probably is due to a survivor bias with strong players staying in the top leagues. It's a regressed curve on age (as a polynomial of degree 3).
Officially official let’s go. Think he’ll provide solid starter minutes + set piece threat and rates out better than our current midfield rotation options of Jorginho/Partey to play alongside Rice and Ødegaard
Able to play in a double pivot or as an eight in a three man midfield, Mikel Merino is filling transfer rumors of late. He's coming off the best season of his career, showing steady progression and with his play, he has proven he belongs at the elite level.
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