Sebastien Mc Mahon
@SebMcMahon_IAStratège en chef, économiste sénior et V-P, IAGMA / Chief Strategist, Senior Economist and VP, IAGAM. Economy, multi-asset strategy, and lots of charts 📈
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Satisfied with the 50 bps cut from the #BankofCanada today, and we expect them to go with 50 bps again on December 11, and possibly (still early) for a third time on January 29. With CPI ex-shelter trending closer to 0% YoY, there is little reason for measured steps. Here's our…
Perspectives 2025 | CFA Montreal: Register now to listen to my good friend @francesdonald and myself take a look at what’s in store for 2025. cfamontreal.org/evenements/eve…
One week left before the next Bank of Canada rate decision, and we stand by our call for a 50 bps rate cut. As evidenced by last week’s Business Outlook Survey, underlying economic conditions remain fragile and both capex and hiring intentions are weak. But beyond this,…
Time for another #chartoftheweek. China's stimulus plan has pushed equities higher by more than 30% in a few short weeks, but there still isn't enough firepower announced to get China out of its balance sheet recession. Our focus is on the credit impulse, which is not moving yet
The potential election of a Conservative government within a year could create “a bit of tension” with the Senate! In my side, I fully intend to do his job properly… without “objecting to the will of Canadians”. ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/21096…?
Mon entrevue de ce matin à propos de la troisième coupure consécutive du taux directeur de la Banque du Canada: tvanouvelles.ca/videos/6361503…
My #Chartoftheweek: Credit is the lifeblood of any economy, and a positive signal seems to be emerging in the Euro Area. The EA credit cycle is quietly bottoming, hinting at a potential reacceleration of an ailing economy.
My #chartoftheweek: Interesting market reaction following a busy week. Seems that the US stock market was indeed priced for perfection, and that earnings expectations might have to normalize. Could AI impatience become the theme of the next few months?
ACTUALITÉS ÉCONOMIQUES 📈 avec @SebMcMahon_IA : Cette semaine : une autre coupure de la Banque du Canada 👇 ow.ly/IxZf50SMb8O
ECONOMIC NEWS 📈 This week with @SebMcMahon_IA: This week, another Bank of Canada rate cut in the books. 👇 ow.ly/R5Na50SMbq7
My #chartoftheweek: Governor Macklem was right to mention in his opening remarks that "We need growth to pick up so inflation does not fall too much". Labour market has swung from historical highs to historical lows on labour shortage. We now expect the BoC to cut 5 times in 2024
My #chartoftheweek: Outperformance of the S&P 500 vs its equal weight version is nearing historical highs on a 6-month rolling basis, as the Nvidia juggernaut powers on. Such stretched moves tend to lead to leadership rotations, time to reassess your sector allocation?
Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there. Thanks to my lovely family for the awesome gift! #NewProfilePic
My #chartoftheweek: U.S. Supercore inflation posted its first MoM negative print since 2021, an almost 2-sigma event on a 3-year basis. The Fed needs to see more progress before pulling the trigger, but this is a decent step in the right direction. Data>Dots from now on.
My #chartoftheweek: First BoC cut in the books, and we expect 2-3 more to come by year-end. Mortgage rates (fixed) were already down 50 bps since the peak in anticipation. Good news but renewals will continue to be the most expensive in 30+ years
My #Chartoftheweek: Canada's GDP per capita growth has worsened with this morning's release, both because of the starting point AND the massive 1% downward revision to Q4 2023. Q1 came in at 1.7%, BoC expected 2.8%. Green light for rate cut on June 5.
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Who to follow
-
Doug Hoyes
@doughoyes -
Eric Lascelles
@RBCGAMChiefEcon -
iA Financial Group
@IAcanada -
Hon. Clément Gignac, ASC, Économiste
@gignacclement -
OEA Ottawa Economics 🇨🇦
@OEAEconomics -
Les Echos Finance
@EchosFinance -
Helen Thompson POLIS
@HelenHet20 -
B Beshoar
@gypsykat1952 -
Brendon Bernard
@BrendonBernard_ -
Lissa Bjerkelund
@LissaBjerkelund -
Ash Bennington
@AshBennington -
Scotiabank Economics
@ScotiaEconomics -
iA Groupe financier
@indusalliance -
Mohammad Sabaaneh
@Sabaaneh -
CHIPZ
@chipzallday
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