Mikael Sarwe
@MikaelSarwe0Head of Nordea Equity Strategy & Quant. In grey zone between macro & market strategy. If you can't show it in a chart then it's not true. Views are my own.
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Thinking about it... Maybe Sweden needs -0.5% repo rate to balance the 77% effective marginal tax rate (income, payroll, consumption taxes)?
🇺🇸 US economic surprises the most negative in a long time. Market reactions still very muted, however...
🇺🇸📈 Momentum clearly sitting in the equity market driving seat. What has that historically meant for equity returns? Nothing good... but of course it could always be different this time..
🇺🇸 For once not worse than expected but no matter how markets view it, to me it was yet another relatively bad CPI print...
🇺🇸 I have long argued it would take longer for CPI rent inflation to cool than the consensus forecast, which has been correct. Many market based indicators have increased more since COVID-19 than CPI primary rent. Also, the recent NY Fed survey warns of a re-acceleration
🇸🇪 Unemployment at 8.6% and moving basically in line with my old model. It spells even more trouble over the coming year. The Swedish recession heading into a new phase as 2024 progresses?
🇺🇸 I kind of wonder what US households think of the Fed's happy "bump on the way to 2%" rhetoric? The price level is up 20%+ since 2019 and the CPI trend has remained more upward sloping than the 10 years before Covid-19. Fed credibility to be questioned again?
🇺🇸 Ouch! By now I have stopped laughing about my heinous Bitcoin vs CPI chart crime. Also, even CPI excluding everything was very high. Inflation remains in line with rate hikes, not rate cuts. So far the Fed hasn't cared but not sure how the Fed will hide from this one.
A "famous last words" tweet... The trend & momentum are kings. But I have rarely seen the equity market as short-term stretched as now. Nordea's Fed strategists have warned about a serious US liquidity slump in Q2 for some time, which could be problematic for markets in general
🇺🇸 Not particularly surprising that Fed governors are on the wires saying that there is no rush to cut the policy rate. CPI numbers the past 6 months are basically consistent with rate HIKES not cuts. Not that I think the Fed will go back to hikes but the data is what it is.
🌎There seems to be increasing talk about a secular bull market for gold. I don't have a clue but if it happens, then history tells us that equities likely are in for a loooong period of zero to negative real return...
🇺🇸 After yesterday's CPI print, my "biggest chart crime of the century" observation perhaps looks a bit less humorous 😵💫📈
🇺🇸 Could it be that it in retrospect will turn out that the US entered a recession early 2024. That is what the household employment data indicates....
🇺🇸 So according to Fed's Tom Barkin, we should be cheering this... 🥳🥳🥳
🇸🇪 GDP -0.2% y/y in Q4 2023. My model still warns about additional downside later in 2024.
🇺🇸 A totally repulsive chart-crime 👿 But you have to admit it is pretty funny... 🤣
So Buffett's Berkshire has record cash level. Wonder why...
🌍 Extremely strong equity markets at the start of 2024, or?
🇺🇸 Weak retail sales. Noise, or the start of a new trend?
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