Fabian Wierczoch
@FabianWierczochex-Cargill in DE and Geneva - Now power & carbon trader in Amsterdam - Trading grains privatly - Podcaster of German Agrarmarktpodcast: https://t.co/7z2i7iAdhB
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-- Grain Macro Monday -- The big tractor producers' profits are in free fall • AGCO (Fendt) -89% • John Deere -25% • Case -43% Also BAYER got hammered to a 20 year low due to a 4.2bn quarterly loss. Lower grain prices are the main contributer to the weak demand from farmers…
Wheat stocks rising ↗️ Corn stocks falling ↘️ Recent price action on CBOT makes a lot of sense #oatt #corn #wheat
- Corn will rally until 450 - Wheat will find a bottom 540-550 with upside to 600-620 - Beans have upside to 1.100 and won't drop much below 1.000 That's what the option market tells us, since there is huge call resp. put strike open interests at these levels #oatt #corn #wheat
You wonder what a potential La Nina brings to North West Europe? Less wind, otherwise nothing special #oatt
"Russian lobby group says officials inflate grain harvest figures" - Reuters Allegedly bunker weight is used instead of clean weight. Also harvest from Ukrainian areas is included #oatt #wheat
-Macro Monday- US: Trump won everything an has ultimate power to put his campaign promises to work. Robert Lighthizer is the most likely candidate to become Trade Representative again, which sent several assets and currencies down (like grains today). EU: Germany's government…
„Sell the rumor (Trump), buy the fact“ - Exactly what happened #oatt
It’s all about the Trump trade, nothing to do with grain fundamentals. Trump wins —> China tariffs—> counter tariffs on Ags Wouldn’t be surprised to see a ‘sell the rumor, buy the fact’ next week after the election
Oats don’t know. In the 10 year lookback correlation is just 29% with a r2 of 0.08… Further, the moment you shift the price of oats back or forth it drops to zero, i.e. NO predictive value AT ALL #oatt
remarkable how strong the carry moved, up 30% the last few weeks. Demand is clearly here, flat price might react next #oatt #wheat #corn
This would be brutal for grains
Looking at weekly exports, the US wheat pace is slowing down, now behind the 5y average. Meanwhile corn is very strong #oatt #corn #wheat
The euro drops almost 2% due to fear of trade tariffs.
Interesting: based on bets Trump will be president, Republicans will get the Senate BUT Dems the House Markets price this in at the moment with yields falling and grains coming back #oatt #wheat #corn
-- Macro Monday-- • Tomorrow (Tue) is the US election with polls hinting an extremely close race even though betting markets clearly favor Trump (but less than 1 week ago). • If Trump wins we should see an overnight sell-off • If Harris wins grain markets should react…
"This year, the share of China's soybean imports from the U.S. has dropped to 18%, from 40% in 2016, while Brazil’s share has grown to 76% from 46%, according to Chinese customs data." #oatt
so close before the US election this will be indeed an interesting one, not only because of the RU floor px #oatt
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