Capital Economics
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What does a second Trump administration mean for global commodity markets? Some early signs show key shifts, with implications for oil, gas, and gold prices. Read our full report to learn more. bit.ly/4eGqLCM #commodities
Is the panic over #Trump’s global economic impact overdone? Our in-depth report on the macro and market consequences of the next president shows why his proposed policies won’t impact the global economy as much as feared – in the near-term at least. shorturl.at/a24rq
Our latest analysis explores rising risks for Treasury bond holders as US debt grows, examining shifts in demand, higher term premia, and the potential impact of a fiscal crisis on the bond market: shorturl.at/DqKwv
What does Donald Trump mean for the global economy economic outlook? Read our analysis to understand how Trump’s #tariff proposals could increase global trade tensions and how Europe, China & other key EMs could respond. Read the full report to learn more. shorturl.at/1sEib
#Trump’s re-election has thrown the US government debt mound into sharp focus, but neither Republicans nor Democrats have shown much willingness to take meaningful action. Find out if growing fiscal risks could lead to a crisis in the #Treasury market. shorturl.at/rb1h8
If Trump follows through on his threat to impose a high sector-specific tariff on European #cars, #German firms could face a significant reduction in exports, deepening the crisis in the sector & adding another headwind to economic growth. Find out more: shorturl.at/HsVso
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Great Bond Massacre. CBO scenarios showing how the US debt mountain could grow underline the risks that Treasury bond holders face a repeat. Download our report to find out whether another crisis is on the cards. shorturl.at/4ZqHm
Our analysis assesses risks for Treasury bond holders amid rising US debt, examining shifts in demand, potential for higher term premia, and impacts of a possible fiscal crisis on the bond market. Read the full report: shorturl.at/D43ib #BondMarket #USTreasuries
The potential economic ripple effects of the #USElection are significant—ranging from new tariffs to inflationary pressures and a stronger dollar. Stay ahead of the curve by watching our on-demand briefing for in-depth insights from our senior economists. shorturl.at/M4qbY
As global markets brace for change, the US election stands to impact trade dynamics, inflation, and economic stability. Watch our on-demand briefing with our senior economists for a comprehensive analysis. shorturl.at/o5neW #USElection2024 #GlobalEconomy #GlobalMarkets
The future of US-China relations hinges on who becomes the next US president. Our latest blog explores how each candidate’s approach could shape China’s growth and the outlook for the global economic system. #ChinaEconomy #USElection #USChinaRelations shorturl.at/uDjwe
"It's consistent with growth perhaps being a bit stronger and rates perhaps not falling quite as fast. The muted initial reaction suggests markets have given the Budget the thumbs up". Our initial response to the UK Budget: buff.ly/3YJYlU3
New podcast episode: What’s keeping governments and bond markets aligned, a UK Budget preview, and Canada’s extraordinary immigration policy U-turn. Listen here: buff.ly/40lHQyw Subscribe via Spotify: buff.ly/3WVbQ29 Or Apple: buff.ly/3WVbPLD
The US election could redefine how China’s economy develops. How would a Trump or Harris presidency impact China’s growth? Explore key insights in our latest blog and find out what lies ahead for tariffs, tech policies, and global alliances. shorturl.at/fVAwn #ChinaEconomy
We’ve slashed our ECB rate forecasts as risks to Europe's economy and inflation grow. We now expect back-to-back 50-basis point cuts in December and January and for this cycle to end with the policy rate at 1.5% – well below current market pricing: shorturl.at/b6E9m
WATCH: The possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency has sparked concerns over the impact to the struggling European economy. Andrew Kenningham of Capital Economics said a Trump victory is not expected to influence ECB policy
The US election could reshape the global economic landscape. Our senior economists break down critical insights on likely shifts in tariffs, trade, and labor markets. Watch the full analysis in our on-demand briefing to stay informed. #USElection #GlobalEconomy
How far will #UK Chancellor go to increase spending & fund investment in her debut #Budget? Our analysis reveals the potential risks in her anticipated plans – and the likely response from the gilt market. Read our in-depth preview to get the full picture. bit.ly/3AeBO8m
We anticipate the Chancellor’s autumn statement will propose an £18bn boost in investment, along with raising current spending to match a net £25bn in tax hikes. What will this all mean for the #UK’s economic outlook? bit.ly/3NLzHf7
With just weeks to go, there's widespread speculation about the damaging impact that #Trump's return would have on the US economy. Our guide to Trumponomics shows why concerns about Trump's campaign pledges are overdone. bit.ly/48oi2nA
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