Burcu Ozcelik
@BurcuAOzcelikSenior Research Fellow, Middle East & North Africa Security @RUSI_org | PhD @Dept_of_POLIS, Cambridge | Armed Conflict, Extremism, Security | Views mine
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As the conflict on the Israel-Lebanon front escalates, the risk of instability amid protracted tensions elsewhere merits a closer read/and an update. A short brief on another complex nexus: Turkey and Iran in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Below @RUSI_org
Iran and Turkey increasingly risk clashing through proxies in Iraqi Kurdistan as Turkey escalates its operations against the PKK, further complicating regional dynamics amid the Gaza war, warns @BurcuAOzcelik rusi.org/explore-our-re…
In this final report produced as part of a joint project with the IISS, experts from the Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research outline a broad range of foreign-policy approaches that Turkiye could pursue, the impact each would have on the country’s defence industry, and…
NEW: Undoubtedly, the Houthis have emerged as a key member of the 'Axis of Resistance' in post-Oct 7 era. Amid Israel's all-out confrontation with Hezbollah, Yemeni expert @maysaashujaa unpacks prospects of Houthis rising to fill any vacuum within Axis. amwaj.media/article/deep-d…
Much speculation in Turkish media, debating, “Is Trump creating an anti-Turkey cabinet?” At the centre of this is Mike Waltz, known as Kurdish friendly (important for Syria policy) and other ‘hawks’. Quick takeaway? Expect a roller coaster four years in #Turkiye-#US relations.
If confirmed, this offers insight into the vulnerability assessment inside the Iranian establishment. Retaliating against Isreal via Iraq would jeopardise Iranian proxy interests in Iraq (financial networks and illicit trade routes), which Iran cannot afford to lose.
Trump effect already at work? Iranian sources tell Sky News Arabia that Iran is standing down from retaliating against Israel after a warning message was conveyed via Iraq. Iran is now exploring negotiations with the Trump govt.
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱Secretary of State Blinken has decided that there will be no change for now to military assistance to Israel following the deadline the U.S. gave Israel regarding the humanitarian situation in Gaza and that expires today, two U.S. officials said. The officials said Israel…
Building on this—Israel and Trump seek a diminished Iranian role in Syria, which may align with Assad’s ambitions for ‘normalisation’ / survival. Cutting Iran off requires Putin’s aid, and Moscow sees new openings with second-term Trump. As does Ankara in its own Syria policy.
What the Israelis understand is that the Russia-Iran relationship is transactional and superficial. For example, it is not a "major" source of arms and ammunition. The two countries compete as much as they cooperate. Russia seeks geopolitical influence. Israel can offer that.
ICYMI: It was a pleasure to speak to @JenniferHolleis for this report on the question on everyone’s mind—what will Trump’s return mean for the Middle East? Excellent contribution to the debate 👇along with @NeilQuilliam1
Trump's return to the White House will be felt in the upcoming US Mideast policies as well. I spoke to the fantastic @BurcuAOzcelik and @NeilQuilliam1 about the return of 'dealmaker' Trump. Also, @Othmanbay contributed to my article on @DeutscheWelle dw.com/en/middle-east…
Trump's return to the White House will be felt in the upcoming US Mideast policies as well. I spoke to the fantastic @BurcuAOzcelik and @NeilQuilliam1 about the return of 'dealmaker' Trump. Also, @Othmanbay contributed to my article on @DeutscheWelle dw.com/en/middle-east…
There is a lot of interest right now in whether the UK is 'ready to fight'. I commented recently for Decoding Geopolitics (full episode is on Patreon but highlights on YouTube below and podcast apps). It's not as alarmist as the title, but still urgent. youtube.com/watch?v=FYG2Ed…
A statement that raises more questions than it answers. Claiming ‘defeat’ over #Hezbollah can signal beginning of the end, a sign that a ceasefire deal is imminent, or muscle-flexing upon taking up the new role. Likely a mix of these.
BREAKING: Israel's new defence minister Israel Katz has said that Israel has defeated Hezbollah and that eliminating its leader Hassan Nasrallah was the crowning achievement. trib.al/Rx0iR33 📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube
New event: America has chosen Trump – what now? US foreign policy post-election and what it means for Europe An expert panel will discuss pressing questions as the world prepares for a second Trump Presidency Tue 12th Nov 5:30pm Newton Room, CB2 1RP Reg: bit.ly/4fzJReX
A worthwhile thread on Kissinger's take on Trump and his place in the evolution (or end) of the international order as we know it 👇 "Kissinger thinks Trump may already be a substantial figure in world history, not, alas, some bizarre printer's error that his opponents hope to…
Kissinger on Trump and 'The Cunning of Reason.' The Financial Times's man in Washington Edward Luce took Henry Kissinger out for lunch in 2018. Luce tried every which way to corner Kissinger into a direct comment on Trump, but his aged quarry easily evaded the pursuit. Except…
Minister of Foreign Affairs @HakanFidan met with Fuad Hussein, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iraq, on the margins of the Foreign Ministers Meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation-Arab League Joint Extraordinary Summit in Riyadh. 🇹🇷🇮🇶
Amidst renewed debate on #Qatar’s role in ceasefire talks in #Gaza, reposting the episode of #theinquiry on @bbcworldservice presented by @Afroscandi: Can anyone broker peace in the Middle East? Listen to us try to explain (good to join @h_lovatt @cjophillips for this one) 👇
Hear from our experts @h_lovatt, Bilal Y. Saab @TrendsRA, @cjophillips and @BurcuAOzcelik why western diplomacy has failed in the Middle East and what can replace it. #theinquiry Presented by @Afroscandi for @bbcworldservice bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3…
Earlier media reporting missed the point that #Qatar were posturing to give teeth to an ultimatum that has so far fallen on deaf ears: take ceasefire talks seriously or else. The ‘or else’ stick is unclear, as Doha abandoning the mediation process will be read as a failure.
Being expelled from Doha could fracture Hamas’s political leadership structures in the long term. Rather than trigger a wholesale ‘relocation’ to a new country, it is possible to read this as a pressure tactic and effort to further disperse Hamas. Speculation over what Qatar's…
On 18 October, Turkey’s MFA met with representatives of Hamas Shura Council and Political Bureau in Istanbul. Relocating Hamas from Qatar to Turkey will outsource complexity with little strategic gain.
Being expelled from Doha could fracture Hamas’s political leadership structures in the long term. Rather than trigger a wholesale ‘relocation’ to a new country, it is possible to read this as a pressure tactic and effort to further disperse Hamas. Speculation over what Qatar's…
It is always a pleasure to share thoughts with @JenniferHolleis Holleis and to be quoted alongside @BurcuAOzcelik - it's clear that the situation in MENA has changed markedly since Trump's presidency and that he will find the post 7 October environment far more challenging.
Trump's return to the White House will be felt in the upcoming US Mideast policies as well. I spoke to the fantastic @BurcuAOzcelik and @NeilQuilliam1 about the return of 'dealmaker' Trump. Also, @Othmanbay contributed to my article on @DeutscheWelle dw.com/en/middle-east…
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