Bobby
@BobtradePhD. mentored by the Late great Meyer Berman. 30 years trading FX and equities. Racehorse owner as hobby [email protected]
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NVDA is just another over hyped parlor trick accounting. Insiders have been dumping at all prices. Some very prominent investors are now out. Vendor financing is nothing new. Competition is nothing new. Picks and shovels in the AI gold rush, but where is the Gold?
The equity markets are the only auction markets where players compete to pay the highest prices. Public participation in equities is at all time highs.
When I was a young green institutional broker at a firm on 44Wall street, I watched as a fellow broker said to me that he was now worth 1 million , in 1972 dollars, but next year he lost it all, it was all on paper. He then said, at least I know what it feels like to be rich
Fifth wave euphoria but not so much for Gold, but Bitcoin massive speculation. I'm old enough to have seen this before, but this might get the Oscar for rampant chasing and herding. It appears current gamblers believe that the easiest way to get rich is buying equities.
Extremely low ERP to risk free rate does not bode well for future returns. Investors appear to believe that current returns will predict future returns. This has not worked out well in the past. We could very well be witnessing a major blow off top. This does not mean short yet
Too many divergences to even summarize but still cann ot short yet. The market is now more over valued on many metrics even more than Dot Com or GFC or 1929. The real bottom of this affair was actually August 1982 based on valuation. Buyers beware up here
NVDA is a cheap parlor trick with vendor financing and more. It's nothing new
Most important is how credit spreads react going forward, so far historically not stressed and thin to risk free
The general public needs to be led, and are followers Jessie Livermore
Should investors follow Josh Brown on Fast Money into Delta and Marriot? I leave that to the genius here on X
Our humble group does not like this market. We see a big drawdown coming. Be defensive, short or Cash. This can get ugly fast
Some of us have asked politely, who are NVDAs clients, and how are they financed? We got silence . I myself compared NVDA to other accounting parlor tricks of the past. How will this unravel ?
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