Bob Elliot
@BobEUnilmited_CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the few ''sane'' voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
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@ASPcheeks
Given the nature of this platform, it is hard to know what kind of track record folks have in making major macro calls. Here's a look at my track record over the last few years. Thread.
UK budget day and US QRA debt profile tomorrow. Could be more borrowing in the UK, and more duration in the US, or could be nothing. Already fragile global bond markets don't need any more pressure here.
The selloff in US bonds has sparked a global dump of developed world sovereign debt. Since US yields started rising after the Fed meeting in Sept, global bond yields are higher, while the dollar and gold are surging, reflecting an increasingly global debt contagion. Thread.
Harris proposals to *twist* the budget by increasing transfers to lower income cohorts and tax higher income earners will lead to higher growth *and* higher inflation. But it is unlikely to come to fruition since it requires agreement from a likely divided congress. Thread.
Chinese fiscal stimulus has typically been much more impactful than monetary stimulus over the last 15 years. And yet nearly all the efforts so far have been monetary.
The rise in yields is mostly being driven by the Fed's shift to "over easy" policy and stronger than expected data. If it was the rise in Trump election odds, you'd expect the market action to line up (it doesn't) and for the YC to steepen, not have a mostly parallel shift up.
Just saw a 7wk old golden retriever puppy playing in the leaves while out walking. Didn’t care about the qra, jobs report, election or Fed. Thought I’d share. Made my day.
Doesn't get any better than this!! http://t.co/bnvjXh6hyK
Had a great visit with my grandmother.Long time overdue. http://t.co/LnqUs4Dhae
Crabs and beer...ummmmm yes please!! http://t.co/PzoqrEF9xs
Heading to Annapolis with my babe...Gonna be a beautiful day!!
Stuffed shells with home made sauce for my man...bet you wish you were here ...
Gotta work hard to have anything in this life.Sometimes being a responsible person sucks...lol
"@kirstenjones_: Shut my finger in my car door. Yay happy Monday 😊😊"poor baby love you i hope your day gets better.
Gonna need someone to put my pic. on my twitter acct. Lol
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