Viola Capital
@violacapitalData scientist by day, investor by night. Opinions only. Not financial advice.
Going long $UNTC was the most perplexingly obvious trade going into 2023. Going long $PBI is the most perplexingly obvious trade going into 2024. In both cases, all publicly available information screamed limited downside and massive upside. And almost nobody cared.
Kurt Wolf has entered the chat. $PBI
Wow - $PBI with a fresh $15 price target with a 2025 EPS estimate of only $1.05 that is going to be absolutely destroyed to the upside!
Rough times ahead for the $PBI bear thesis.
Obviously time to own my mistake with $MOB.ST. I've sold after today's news; I don't trust management. $PBI option & share gains offset most of the losses, but this stings. Now down 15% YTD. Big swings, big hits, big misses.
$MOB.ST has overtaken $PBI as my largest position, partially due to its recent run-up and partially due to reallocation. $MOB.ST - 48% $PBI - 40% $HHH - 6% $PHYS - 3% $PSLV - 3% I still expect $PBI to >2x from here. $MOB.ST can sleepwalk to 5x.
Closed.
I've added some $PBI Jan '25 $5 calls. People simply don't understand how coiled this spring is.
A close look at Marc Lautenbach's management was the key to understanding why $PBI was a grand slam. Questions about whether Hestia could fix this were always silly. The business was trying to gush cash, and Marc spent a decade shoveling it all into the fire.
i was listening to the Q2 2023 earning call for $PBI and something deeply annoyed me about the way marc lautenbach answered this question. @petersakon asked a reasonable question on whether a GEC subsidiary is worth closing given it is EBITDA negative.
$PBI: GEC wind-down will be completed in early 2025 and incur less than $150m in net shutdown costs. My prediction of late fall was pretty close. It's unfortunate that the USPS changes affected the sale value so much, but this is playing out fantastically.
$PBI 👀👀 "Logistics startup Stord is acquiring the e-commerce fulfillment services operations of publicly traded shipping services company Pitney Bowes, according to an internal memo sent to Pitney Bowes staff. It’s the second acquisition so far this year by the Kleiner Perkins–…
Two weeks ago, I made a $700,000 mistake at work. Felt absolutely sick when I found out and it took me a few days to feel normal again. I feel for the people at CrowdStrike who are having the worst day of their life.
There are a lot of smart people here, but I've been on Twitter for a year now and no one has come close to making a serious argument against owning $PBI.
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