Nick Marro
@nickm4rroPrincipal Economist for Asia and Lead for Global Trade @TheEIU, with eyes specifically on China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Australia. Based in HK. Views my own.
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Donald Trump’s triumph is making Beijing nervous. And it’s not just his tariff threats that could cause more pain to an already-weak Chinese economy. Another, and potentially even bigger, fear is what some people call a “reverse Nixon.” @Lingling_Wei wsjchina.cmail19.com/t/d-e-sluilhd-…
Chip War: South Korea has proposed a special chips act of more subsidies, and an exemption from a national cap on working hours, due to US President-elect Trump’s threats of steep tariffs on China, which could cause China #semiconductor firms to slash prices and undercut Korean…
US chip restrictions are hindering AI ambitions of China’s top chip foundry sc.mp/d9dvk?utm_sour… via @scmpnews
Updated data/forecasts on broader China-SEA trade
Intermediate projections are that China - SE Asia trade will reach $1.5 trillion by 2030, and SE Asia - USA trade will hit $600B by 2030. These are intermediate projections as well, the high estimates have China - SE Asia trade at $1.8T, and SE Asia - America trade at $800B.
Interestingly, a lot of these proposals *were* in Harris’ campaign, incl rent and drug price caps, raising min wage, expanding Medicare, passing PRO, expanding affordable housing/college education , enhancing child care tax credits, reducing med debt… kamalaharris.com/wp-content/upl…
ANALYSIS: #Taiwan is set to face heavy pressure to strengthen its defence & decouple supply chains from China after Trump won the presidential race. Cabinet minister Peng Chi-ming told @NikkeiAsia he’s upbeat about tech/climate cooperation with the US. 1/6 asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter…
A top US lawmaker urged the Biden Administration to send agents to see if China’s SMIC is illegally making chips for Huawei, which faces US sanctions, media report. "There is growing evidence that SMIC is violating U.S. export control laws," House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair…
Re the discussion on Trump “trading away Taiwan” for a deal with China, has anyone thought about how that would actually work? Would the Taiwanese sit idly by as the US decides their sovereignty? Or Trump’s generals, given how this undermines US’s Asian defense commitments?
Probably a good idea to re-up our Trump Risk Index, looking at the most exposed economies to a Trump 2.0 presidency. The attached snapshot covers trade, but we also look at security & immigration. Our full analysis is here (free): eiu.com/n/campaigns/tr…
SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are cutting output of older DRAM chips as China firms ramp output, media report, noting SK Hynix will cut DDR4 DRAM memory chips to 20% of total DRAM output by year-end, from 30% at end-September as it revamps production lines for cutting edge…
Chips are down: The U.S. government has fined New York-based #GlobalFoundries $500,000 for selling #chips without authorization to an entity linked to #SMIC, a blacklisted Chinese chipmaker. companies.caixin.com/2024-11-04/102…
China’s Huawei has sought to poach TSMC semiconductor engineers by offering to triple their salaries, media report, citing France’s Le Monde newspaper. Huawei has tapped headhunting agencies to help in its quest, and sends emails directly to TSMC engineers at least once every…
All eyes on agro-diplomacy as China’s food-security needs open new import doors sc.mp/c688e?utm_sour… via @scmpnews
Alongside persistently weak/falling industrial profits (-27% in Sep, -3.5% YTD), you have to wonder whether 4.5%-5% real GDP growth really matters for on-the-ground biz conditions Western consumer groups unconvinced by China’s economic stimulus efforts ft.com/content/03f8c5…
Big scrap yesterday - again - at the WTO's Committee on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures China clashed with several members over the overcapacity meeting: US, UK, EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, Taiwan, per Geneva trade source Mainly G7 members vs China in lengthy exchanges
China will hold live-fire drills Tuesday in waters around Niushan Island, the closest point on China's coast to the island of Taiwan. focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/2…
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