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Why the S&P500 has positioning risk here:
GS: The rise in the S&P in 2024 has been one of the strongest since 1928
Stanley Druckenmiller’s Approach to Stocks “I focused my analysis on identifying the factors that were strongly correlated to a stocks price movement as opposed to looking at all the fundamentals.” “Many analysts still don’t know what makes their stock go up or down.”
While economic momentum looks pretty clear in the near-term, pretty much every asset market has already priced strength ahead. PEs & 12m fwd earnings are high. Spreads are low. And Gold & USD are both just off highs. Rates look like the main exception. Thread w/ updated views.
BREAKING: Money market fund assets under management have exceeded $7 trillion for the first time in history. Over the last week, $91 billion has flowed into these funds despite the Fed cutting rates by another 25 basis points. Assets in money market funds have DOUBLED in just…
From Bloomberg. I suspect that this is yet another reason why China is, by far, the most vulnerable to what will likely end up to be a very differentiated application by the incoming US Administration of trade tariffs and investment sanctions. #economy #china #trade #markets
U.S. is pumping more oil than ever before and significantly more than Saudi Arabia ... gap between both countries is more than 4 million barrels per day @DataArbor
Andrew Huberman joins me to discuss why we HAVE to do hard things in order to become better human beings. How to increase your dopamine by 60% and more, listen today on all podcast platforms 🙌
Senior Chinese officials "are planning to step up courtship of American business leaders to try to counterbalance the China hardliners on Trump’s foreign-policy team." Chief target? Elon Musk. wsj.com/world/china/tr…
This @VisualCap graphic shows U.S. government’s final budget results for FY2024, showing total receipts and outlays; data comes from @USTreasury, with fiscal year running from Oct. 1, 2023 to Sept. 30, 2024
Six Trading Principles from George Soros
Returns since election... Dogecoin: +128% Coinbase: +47% Tesla: +31% Bitcoin: +29% Banks: +10% Small Caps: +4.9% S&P 500: +3.6% US Dollar: +3.1% --- Long-Term Treasuries: -3.2% International Stocks: -3.5% Oil: -5.4% Gold: -6.2% China: -7.3% Trump Media: -15% Volatility: -32%…
I'm German. 16 years ago, the EU and US economies were neck and neck. Today, the US economy is 50% larger than the entire EU combined. Here's the devastating truth behind Europe's ongoing economic suicide 🧵:
Inflation has leveled off above the Fed's mandate and yet JP keeps cutting, confidently claiming it is going back to 2%. A range of datapoints indicate inflation has been roughly stable at these levels for 12-18m, suggesting the Fed's view is more hope than reality. Thread.
I keep seeing the chart float around of 23 million government employees, as though that's directly cuttable by the new Department of Government Efficiency. Keep in mind that 3 million of those are listed as federal and the other 20+ million are state/local. A thread. 🧵
Oil prices are crashing: While stocks are hitting record highs, oil prices are down 12% in 4 weeks and nearing their lowest levels since May 2023. Today, OPEC cut its oil demand growth forecasts for the FOURTH consecutive month. What are oil markets telling us? (a thread)
An interesting combination worth keeping an eye on: The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) has risen at the same time as the #Yen has depreciated — this as the spillovers from the move up in US bond yields add to the pre-existing economic and financial…
This is an email from former US National Gymnastics coach Chris Sommer to @tferriss I printed it out, and it's one of the few things I keep on my desk. The ultimate competitive advantage is having the discipline to keep going when others quit.
UPDATE: President Marcos is set to sign into law the proposed CREATE More Act, which will further lower taxes on domestic and foreign companies to 20% from 25% under the CREATE Act of 2021. Economists earlier flagged that the measure will further erode state revenues. @bworldph
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Jun Neri
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leaf
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TuktokTrader
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draggy
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