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Correction: that was the Rt for virus transmission and mix of the delta variant would start in mid June
Expected reproductive number for delta variant transmission in Florida, based on a mathematical model:
What we are expecting in Florida in the next few weeks:
I could not be more thrilled that the Biden-Harris Administration has announced an intention to create a National Center for Epidemic Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics @dylanbgeorge 1/ whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
The WHO Solidarity Therapeutics Trial for COVID-19 has shown how well some of the key therapeutics really work who.int/news/item/15-1… . This is the future of randomized trials for the people in a pandemic.
It is critical to implement testing and tracing as we reopen to keep deaths down until we have effective vaccines, therapeutics and prophylactic agents.
Modeling the impact of social distancing, testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second-wave scenarios of the COVID-19 epidemic mobs-lab.org/uploads/6/7/8/…
Modeling the impact of social distancing, testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second-wave scenarios of the COVID-19 epidemic mobs-lab.org/uploads/6/7/8/…
With intensive testing and contact tracing, and with a staged approach, the State of Florida could begin to safely reopen in a safe and measured way, and keep COVID-19 under control until effective therapeutics, prophylactic agents and vaccines can be deployed.
#COVID19 model forecasts for Florida, created by Ira Longini, prof. in @UFPHHP, @UFMedicine & @EPI_UF, predict a second wave of infections, more intense than what's been seen so far, if social distancing is relaxed too soon. bit.ly/2VU1Pld
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Betz Halloran
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Ottar Bjornstad
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Eugenio Valdano
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Justin Lessler
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andrew azman @andrewazman.bsky.social
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