@hagrin Profile picture

Irrelevant Pseudo Quant

@hagrin

Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counteraccusations. Dev / Ultrarunner / Cornell / Legit top right boogeyman "A monster with table manners"

Joined January 2008
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RIP @groovinmahoovin Thank you for all you taught me generously without ever asking for a single thing in return. I won't ever forget a single lesson and I will remember your influence every time I look at my model's dashboard. Rest easy.

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This is an easy, good heuristic just like #YesAllTouts so not disagreeing. But Groovin taught me. Groovin won. He was insane, but he was unique & spent time teaching if he felt you were putting in the effort to learn & never asked for anything in return. RIP to the realest.

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Threads like these are a great idea, finding access to good papers is too hard. But paper 1 is not good & much of 5 is covered in 4 (Oikonomidis involved in both). You can check out my repo of papers here - github.com/hagrin/sports/… - not all encompassing but it's what I have.

I've come across a few articles and dissertations that may help with background information on sports gambling and common sports gambling models. Beating the bookies with their own numbers - and how the online sports betting market is rigged arxiv.org/abs/1710.02824 1/?



Was saving this for an article, but seems appropriate today. Imagine if I cared about the fiat value of BTC denominated bets knowing Nitro took 6 BTC no KYC multi accts on broken NFL draft props in 2015. Lol? And if you must, there are trading instruments you can use to help.

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Throwback Thursday: Found this today after almost 5 years. Three days after the Deadspin article dropped on ESPN 1100 in Las Vegas. "They're going to pay." #LiesMounting soundcloud.com/ipqhagrin/rj-t…


I've seen a bunch of people ask about 5D futures, seems as if settled after Sept 25th will be canceled and refunded.


I get books limiting winners, but if you're a no-KYC, BTC book & you're limiting winners on top of absurdly low limits, all you're doing is antagonizing me to beat you more. If you think chain forensics & temporal analysis will save you vs me, my UTXOs have some bad news for you


Will probably record in the next 24-48 hours (if I can stop clearing my throat) & this will be the only time I ever do something like this so send your questions/insults. Sports/crypto/tech good topics, pls no Whole Foods questions cc @jppeasy

@hagrin consider this official invitation to be guest on #TBWCep4



Eliud Kipchoge just broke the 2 hour marathon barrier & did it looking pretty comfortable after a little rough patch in the middle of the race. 1:59:40. Unreal.


Going to be a long day on the Twitter machine I see if we're starting the day standing with RAS although the irony of the argument being made is certainly not lost on me. Trending towards a #BFD.

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This is not a hot take we’ve been through this multiple times now.

Hot take: The #1 issue holding back recreational gamblers is *NOT* bankroll management. It's placing negative EV bets.



This is not a problem, it's a feature.

Here's the problem with recreational gamblers using Kelly criterion to help determine wager size: Kelly says you should be 0% of your bankroll if you don't have an edge.



Reading the Nitrogen chatbox on a Sunday with poors pestering the admins trying to get their .001 BTC wagers graded in time to shove it all in again on the 4:25pms. Except, you know, for a million dollars and a title. #SBNC #PayTheManHisDogTreats


Dog treats for all! There are far worse outcomes than @RufusPeabody shipping this (like PGF somehow shipping from 18th place god help us) so good luck Rufus.

One to make sure to check later: Rufus Peabody is 'Opti5624' -- currently in fourth place a bankroll of $42,875. In striking distance... #SBNC



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