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ericpardo

@epardosa

Joined January 2012
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ericpardo Reposted

🧵 Clearing the Confusion: HTS, Turkish Proxies, and the Threat to Rojava (AANES) 1/ A lot of confused "experts": What are the goals of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkish-backed SNA? How do their actions threaten Rojava (AANES)? Let’s clarify.

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ericpardo Reposted

The fall of #Aleppo: #Russia's reactions so far, and what it says about #Russia's broader position in the Middle East. Some thoughts - preliminary, since the situation is in flux: 🧵


ericpardo Reposted

Some points: 1) The difference in results was 5% in Moldova and more than 5% in Georgia between the ruling party and opposition forces; 2) The irregularities recorded in Moldova, including discrimination of diaspora voters, have less weight in the Western legitimization of the…

My latest article: “Post-Election Geopolitical Alignments of Georgia and Moldova”, for @GEOpolitics2024 politicsgeo.com/article/101



ericpardo Reposted

Nothing undermines democracy and the reputation of the West in post-Soviet countries than the geopolitisation of democratic elections. Why is the rather dubious outcome in Moldova - achieved through amplified diaspora vote in the West and suppressed diaspora vote in Russia - is a…


ericpardo Reposted

That's the source video: youtube.com/watch?v=01DdfM…


ericpardo Reposted

1. The new sanctions targeting key Russian banks have caused a sharp devaluation of the ruble. Russia's central bank isn't going to be able to keep devaluation and inflation in check as FX revenues are interrupted. Does this mean sanctions are finally working? Probably not...

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ericpardo Reposted

Russia is in very deep trouble because its economy cannot sustain the war expenditures on the scale it needs to be able to advance for much longer. Even Moscow-based analysts now warn that 2025 would be dire indeed. But don't take my word for it. Here's an overview. 1/15


ericpardo Reposted

The new nuclear "Basic Principles" just dropped (h/t @KomissarWhipla). The key change is that it's the aggression that "poses critical threat to the sovereignty and/or territorial integrity" instead of "puts the very existence of the state in jeopardy" publication.pravo.gov.ru/document/00012…

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Claves del uso de misiles ATACMS de EE UU dentro de Rusia: una decisión política de peso con una influencia limitada en la guerra de Ucrania elpais.com/internacional/… a través de @el_pais


ericpardo Reposted

At the end of July 2024, the Levada Centre finds the highest levels of life satisfaction, confidence in the future and a sense of opportunity in Russia in the 20-30 years of its polling. levada.ru/2024/08/27/ots…

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ericpardo Reposted

One week ago today, Kamala Harris conceded the 2024 Presidential election to Donald Trump. In a new paper, David Steinberg (@SAISHopkins), @se_aytac & I show inflation hurt the Harris-Walz ticket, especially among Democrats & Independents Link: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… 🧵👇1/10

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ericpardo Reposted

Around 30% of Mariupol’s prewar population has returned to the Russian occupied city, its Ukrainian mayor-in-exile Vadym Boichenko said at a conference of Ukrainian urban municipalities, as reported by Strana. He added that it reflects the situation across most occupied…

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ericpardo Reposted

NYTimes writes that Ukraine is shifting focus from territorial control to security guarantees. Here in Kyiv, I agree. The Trump election is a wake up call for many, including me, to reassess our options. 1/

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