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“I am a big believer in Nassim Taleb’s definition of risk, probability and severity” -Scott Bessent youtu.be/wchyQ-XoBlE
Here is the full interview youtu.be/wchyQ-XoBlE?si…
Grrrrrrrrreat news. The new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent understands: 1) The ruin problem & the fallacy of predicting frequencies of events (Phil-the-rat @PTetlock-style). 2) That systems with low volatility are MORE prone to negative tail events. h/t @George_Saghir
Lindy
How can this Colin guy study evolutionary biology without understanding asymmetry?
I am not convinced that jumping without a parachute is bad. What's the most clear and comprehensive study demonstrating their harm?
Beautiful. Seems like the Kolmogorov complexity of a poem is longer than the text itself.
Actually an interesting way to look at P-values. Given P-value is a random variable and highly skewed, you may need less oxen to reach your goal. @nntaleb #rwri #p-hacking
the haruspex has performed a detailed augury of the entrails of 20 sacrificed oxen. from one of them he has found a very interesting and counterintuitive result in the social sciences, with a p-value of 0.05
FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS My conjecture, expressed on X, that pple w/news in advance don't do well has been tested by Haghani et al. Indeed they failed to really capitalize on information 1) you don't know beforehand what is noise, & 2) overestimate the information (sizing)
Based on reactions to this video clip, two kinds of people emerged: 1. People making a living by publishing academic papers and 2. People actually building things/taking real world risks.
People do not seem to get that probability does not exist in an objective sense. It’s another way to say: focus on f(x) instead of x No wonder it triggers those economists who love to “forecast” #IYI #RWRI
IN CONSTRUCTION Human beings are only healthy when they are still in construction (intellectually). Aging starts when they become a self-museum.
X (former Twitter) friends, If I need to work in Abu Dhabi( with family) for a year or two, is there anything I should worry about or take care of? Thx
37% rule
'Knowing When to Stop' - Theodore P. Hill on the mathematics of optimal stopping (PDF): gwern.net/doc/statistics…
Again, nonlinearity in the tail. When the mean improves a bit you’ll see many many more medals
What's the best explainer on why India doesn't win many Olympic medals?
The people waiting (anxiously) for Fed’s rate cut are fragile. Regardless of the actual result. #RWRI
Pan Zhanle’s record breaking performance in 100m freestyle surprised many people. Instead of accusing doping( zero evidence so far), one should consider the nonlinearity in the tail. #Paris2024 #Swimming #GOLD #probability #RWRI
Nonlinearity in the tails + large population base will make China looks more surprising in the future
Nonlinearity in the tails + large population base will make China looks more surprising in the future
Why are we seeing an explosion of research from China, India, Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, etc.? A tiny bit of growth leads to nonlinear effects in the tails. As education improves 1 STD, the number of PhDs is multiplied by 42. Need to calibrate with real nmbrs.
China's foreign policy, so far, seems less destructive than the obsolete Anglo-American model. They try to get parties to get along, such as Iran & Saudi Arabia (or the various Palestinian factions); the Anglo-American model consists in backing one ag. the other. This is yuuge.
A slightly different one for my daughter ( she forgets how to speak fractions in English)
Flip a fair coin 10 times under cover of darkness. I take a look at the outcome and show you 9 of the coins—they’re heads. The probability the 10th coin is heads is:
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