Anon Amos Bob
@TheRealBob99N. Californian, Some U. of Chicago education, Bell Labs, Salomon Bros., Hedge Funds, Fixed Income Pro. All comments are personal views not investment advice.
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"As we listen to the youngest generation [of our colleagues], how do we move in the direction of human skills that mirror what they are saying their specific needs are." Deloitte CLO Anthony Stephan spoke about how humans and AI work together at the #ForbesFutureOfWork Summit.
If the Fed won't do what is necessary to bring inflation back to target, the bond market will just do it on its own.
United flight UA 1830 from Houston (IAH) to Newark (EWR) on Sat, Apr 6 g.co/kgs/2ykjKwR
George Santos has been expelled. If they can do this to a college volleyball star, world famous Brazilian journalist, successful NYC financier and noted producer of the Spider Man musical, what hope is there for we mere mortals?
If you told me 10 years ago that a group of the smartest engineers in the land would evoke the threat, "Do what I say or I will go to work at Microsoft," I would not have believed you. Amazing shift in corporate reputation (and much credit to Satya).
This quarter will be remembered for stocks getting much more expensive relative to bonds just as the rise in yields created subsequent economic weakness. With @jonfortt and @MorganLBrennan on @CNBCOvertime:
"When you bring the discount rate up the way we have 80 basis points and stocks haven't gone done anywhere near as much to offset that, we have stocks today that are meaningfully more expensive than they were at the start of the quarter," says @UnlimitedFnds CI @BobEUnlimited
Even with recent yield rises, term premium remains very low. Probably needs 75-100bps rise until value buyers find duration compelling. Getting there would slice another ~10-15% off stocks, likely enough weakness to create a turn in the economic cycle for bonds to be a buy.
At @UnlimitedFnds we are on a mission to make hedge fund style strategies available for all investors at lower costs. Pretty awesome to see the @business editorial page not only wrestle with the opportunity we see, but also clearly endorse our approach: bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Always enjoy jumping on with @ChipFlory from @agritalk to discuss the key market dynamics impacting middle America. This time a convo about how unusually expansionary fiscal policies are leading to pressure in the bond market. Check it out! omny.fm/shows/agritalk…
Thanks for the meme @EverythingOOC! Streaming TT now on twitch.tv/gmhikaru if you want to check out the Takes Takes Takes in person.
It's hard to know where any economy is going. But if you want to start predicting where the macro economy will go in the next 3-6m, here are the 13 key indicators to track that will give you a head start. 👇
Even with 500bps of tightening, money just isn't all that tight. In past cycles rates peaked >5% above core PCE inflation. Today the Fed's actions have brought rates to just match it.
What’s unique about hearings is that it’s just you, a witness, and 5 unfiltered minutes. You either sink or swim on your own effort. Fox News & tech billionaires can’t save you here. If you’re not on point, there’s nowhere to hide. and that’s where I wait 😎
Core inflation is slow-moving and often bottoms long after the standard CPI measurement. Look at the Dot-Com and the GFC, core inflation bottomed long AFTER the recession. A pause nevertheless implies increasing tightness as real rates move higher with core CPI slowly declining
Cut through the noise. Core inflation has been stable at 5% annualized over the last 6 months. That is far too high given the Fed’s mandate.
Bob makes an important point here. 👇 The strategy to lower oil prices by draining the SPR could backfire at some point.
SPR releases undermine the longer-term inflation fight. While it reduces oil px short-term, eventually the sales will stop and oil will be bought back. That's a future inflationary impulse. The more time inflation persists, the more likely that an inflationary mindset emerges.
Eventually measured rent prices will moderate, but that doesn't look like it will happen in a time frame fast enough for the Fed to pivot any time soon. Instead for the time being these prices and other core prices will remain too high and given that the Fed has more work to do.
Pivotiers will call from the rooftops this week that the only reason inflation is elevated and the Fed is tightening and is because of OER & rent measures. The reality is those costs have been *understated* by CPI and other core prices are rising and well above the Fed's target.
It's hard to read that detailed, appalling indictment and then listen to politicians, for their own purposes, dodge and deflect to avoid confronting what is inescapable: Trump is thoroughly unfit for any office, much less the highest office in the land.
* Stocks at same level as when tightening started. * Core PCE and CPI stable at 5% for 6 months. * UE rate at secular lows. * Growth above potential. Fed remains far from their mandate with work to do. Skip or not, rates much more likely higher not lower thru end of year.
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