Stoic Silver Bear
@StoicSilverBearSilver/gold/uranium miner charting bear. Actually a bear. Occasional vignettes about bear life. Especially when drinking beer. Definitely not financial advice.
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Here's just how historic this quarterly close above the 3 month cloud is: The two other times #silver closed a quarter above in the last 150 years it went on +6000% & +430% runs, even erasing the wicks. This is a major signal that we are just beginning a massive bull market.
Lock it in. I'm calling it now. First close above the 3 month cloud ever for #silver. Stop being a pussy; this is a bull market.
Nothing changed on Friday. My thoughts on the thread below remain the same. In case you missed it:
Small thread: Six charts making me think this is the bottom for silver. 1) SILJ/Silver: Silver miners vs Silver. I posted on this yesterday. The arc (zoomed in here) held today. If that remains true, it is a bottom for miners vs silver, and therefore silver itself. 1/6
Btc hour -- bitcoin had a nice day, but this is still potentially a H&S unless it can clear rising pink resistance. Rising support held strong for now.
Bitcoin 1hour -- The first rising support and 1hour cloud were lost and there was miner carnage, as expected. It has since bounced off support 2, and is in a mini bull flag. A breakout of that would test the cloud or rising resistances. Breakdown here = low 80s. BTC
Uranium miners also had a frustrating day. Big moves to start, some +10%. All fishing flat. $CCJ again failed to recover that rising resistance there is danger of a lower low until then
Solid close to the day for many uranium miners. $CCJ Cameco will say whether this is the start of the next leg up. Here on the 4hour chart it's testing the key rising pivot that rejected a few days ago. Clear that, & it should head for another higher high/be a U miner buy signal
$MAG, $EXK, $AG, $CDE vs Silver -- Random silver producer collection vs Silver part 2 (daily chart). As per above, the consolidation aligns with the previous bull market and suggests a potential bottom on the weekly. Here on the daily we see and attempt to round out a bottom and…
My random collection of silver producers vs URNM (see linked post) reached that resistance identified, then formed a bull channel after a false b/out. Now trying to break the d/trend over the daily cloud. If successful, it should be able to make a proper run at resistance,…
$MAG, $EXK, $AG, $CDE -- This collection of silver producers (a sample of the good, the so-so, and the bad performers so far) is still outperforming $URNM, the best Uranium mining etf. I am heavily focused on silver producers for this round of the silver bull market. We'll see…
$PAAS Pan American Silver -- Not much time spent on this chart, but it's clearly trying to hammer out a bottom on the daily cloud. If so, rising resistance (former support) might eventually be a ball-buster, but that's a concern for the future. Key now is breaking the downtrend.
$USAS Americas Gold and Silver daily -- I'm going to renege on that post below. There is a decent chance this breaks out and the bottom is in. The dip yesterday was SILJ rebalancing. Today it bounced off the daily cloud to finish higher at +14%. Whizz-bang, it's back above the…
$USAS America's Gold and Silver obviously did not deliver on that short term breakout (like all the other silver stocks at that time). Here now on the 4hour it is close to the key rising support, which is matched by the 4hour cloud. If this fails, it's likely to test horizontal…
$GDX and $SILJ were flat today (both -0.59, interestingly), so nothing to see there. $ASM Avino was a turd sandwich. The blue line rejected yesterday, but it closed today just on top of lower rising support/150dayMA Volume is massive. Last bit of SILJ rebalancing, surely.…
Let's start with a quick $ASM Avino Silver and Gold update today as it did find support at the bottom of the daily cloud, but then was rejected by the previous rising support (blue). Will be attractive again if--and only if--it can recover that line.
But... how about a little more positivity on a Friday evening (or Saturday morn, here in Bear Creek). Yes, the silver #1hour chart shows the downtrend was broken--and then beat back within the line after the NYSE open. 1% to -0.6%... it's not a good look. But, at least the 1hour…
Friday's Silver chart in 1min candles Call it "Bear Turd Mountain" or "Death by a Thousand Bee Stings." Either way, it stinks--and stings!
Silver 4hour -- Even if the downtrend is broken for a daily close, there is much recovery to do. The 4hour cloud looms uncomfortably close here. Then the 32-32.5 zone, then the final declining resistance. Expecting some up and down in between *even if* the bottom is in here.
Gold/silver ratio daily -- GSR is now below the 50dayMA. The day is very young though, of course. Need reaction to US data to seal the deal.
3) Gold/silver ratio daily: The daily cloud's held for 7 days, speaking to a top. Similar such tops are indicated. Like some of these other tops, the 50dayMA has been barely broken above & held for the same 7 days. One will win,one will fail. The result will tell the tale. 3/6
#Silver 1hour -- Starting to poke its head out of the cave...
#Silver 1hour -- Break the 1hour cloud/100hourMA and we might be on to something. Data and Powell speech today will be a catalyst for a breakdown or a break up, either way. (Of course, it still needs to recover the 32-3.25 area to confidently signal higher highs.)
#DXY daily zoomed in. As per the linked post, the breakout looks legit, but this is an incredibly precarious uptrend. Look how far it is from even the 25dayMA. It will test this eventually. Probably very soon. It will likely come with a breakout backtest of blue support.
#DXY daily -- As per above, DXY has staged a significant b/out. The only way to have a high degree of conviction the run has ended is if the daily cloud & 50dayMA are lost (red arrows). Notably, it's quite a distance from both of these now, so a correction *might* be coming soon
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