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US auto sales rose by 3.3% last month to an annualized rate of 15.8 million. Sales have remained steady, but activity is below the 2018-19 pace of 17.1 million. Easing interest rates could potentially drive auto sales activity higher in the months ahead.

The August JOLTS report shows a cooling labor market. Both the quits rate and hiring rate hit multi-year lows, indicating less turnover and hiring activity. However, companies are holding onto their workers, as the layoff rate remains at very low levels.

Sector performance broadened in the 3rd quarter with 8 of 11 sectors outpacing the S&P 500, led by rate-sensitive sectors Utilities (+19.4%) and Real Estate (+17.2%). Tech and Communication Services led in the first half of the year, but they lagged in Q3.

New home sales fell by 4.7% in August, but there’s a silver lining. The 3-month avg reached a 29-month high, and with declining mortgage rates, the housing market could see momentum building in the coming months as it recovers from a rolling recession.

US retail sales rose 0.1% in August, beating expectations of a 0.2% decline. A 1.2% drop in gasoline sales from falling prices detracted from sales, but that was offset by a 1.4% rise in nonstore (online) retail sales.

The ISM Service and Manufacturing PMI readings rose slightly last month, but the manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for 21 of the last 22 months. Meanwhile, service sector activity continues to drive the economy's positive trajectory.

September has historically been a weak month for #stocks. Investor anxiety is high on the first trading day this year, with the S&P 500 down 2.12% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq falling 3.26%.

Homeowners now hold a record $32.8 trillion in housing equity. As the Fed begins cutting interest rates, the borrowing costs for tapping into this equity will decrease. This is one way rate cuts could help stimulate the economy.

The S&P 500 hasn’t traded below its 200-day moving average since last November. While momentum remains strong for equities, risks from Fed uncertainty, weak seasonality, and the upcoming election could lead to a re-test of the early August pullback low.

An early look at the economy this month suggests moderating activity. The updated S&P Flash US Composite PMI for August shows accelerating services activity, while manufacturing contracted, leading to a slight pullback in the composite index.

Initial jobless claims rose to 232K last week, up 4K from the prior week, while the 4-week average fell to 236K, down from 247K a year ago. Initial unemployment claims have trended lower since peaking this year at 250K in late July.

High yield bond spreads didn’t break out during the recent surge in market volatility. With spreads remaining at relatively low levels, the credit market isn’t signaling near-term economic risk.

The markets say it’s a coin flip on whether the #Fed cuts 1/4 or 1/2 percent in September (see below). On the other hand, the Fed is pushing back on the 1/2 percent cut. Lots of data between now and September, however, I lean towards 1/4. Please watch video for more details.

The 30-yr mortgage rate fell to a 15-month low of 6.55% last week, but mortgage purchase applications only increased by a narrow 0.8%. However, refinancing activity jumped 16%. We anticipate that mortgage activity will pick up as rates fall.

Great to see market gains today after yesterday's drop. But, disappointing to see equities close near the low of the day. I still think a correction is likely for the S&P 500 and the key support level is the 200-day moving average (5016). #Stocks #Stockmarket #SPX #SPX500

Don't believe the hype. 70% chance #Fed cuts 50bps in Sept. 2 data points last week raised recession fears, but overall data is still respectable (ex. unemployment rate just 4.3%). Markets trying to draw a conclusion from only 2 data points and we get many more before Sept.…

Stock market volatility is typical in most years. The average calendar year drawdown for the S&P 500 is -14% since 1980, despite finishing positive in 36 of the 44 years over this stretch. The stock market doesn’t go up in a straight line.

High valuations/high expectations/high concentration have increased risks. Disappointing earnings guidance & economic growth concerns hitting equities. A correction is likely. Good news is that any correction should be short-lived and provide opportunities. Click to learn why.…

Equities facing dual threats of poor corporate guidance, especially around tech, and an economic growth scare. S&P 500 down about 6% from peak. Correction possible, but not bear market (no recession/Fed cuts rates/$24T of cash on sidelines). Key support level is 5007 (12% drop)…

#Stocks sold off for the 2nd straight day, with the S&P 500 declining 1.8%, resulting in a 5.7% drawdown from last month’s high. Today’s soft jobs report rattled markets. The bond market is now pricing in aggressive rate cuts in the next few meetings.