Matthew Price
@MatthewPrice01Political researcher @DeltapollUK. Views my own. Following: mostly pollsters. Followed by: mostly bots.
Thinking about making my post-election Twitter detox permanent… If you follow me on here, follow me over there instead!
It’s really striking how the Corbynite left has migrated to the Greens. The result is a curious coalition between the older and more Nimby environmentalist base, and the new hard left/progressive influx. These are quite different people with quite different politics!
Here’s the story of the campaign as told by Deltapoll’s last 8 polls. Steady Labour slippage, sustained Reform surge, Tory decline with a partial late recovery.
This is why.
Loads of media coverage of Tory-Reform switchers. Precious little that I’ve heard about Tory-Lib Dem.
Today marks 8 years since the EU referendum in 2016. Deltapoll data show that public opposition to Brexit began to harden around about the time of, well, Brexit.
Lovely to see my analysis of voting age curves featured on Newsnight yesterday, presented by the inimitable @nicholaswatt
And a cracking good read it is too.
Mildly interesting fact of the day: the longest article on Wikipedia right now is... 'Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election' (779,038 bytes) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p…
Home ownership is an under-discussed cleavage in British politics. At the constituency level, it was remarkably predictive of Conservative vote share in 2019.
The Conservatives’ lowest ever vote share (19%) in our latest results at Deltapoll. Reform’s highest ever (16%).
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)
Even @PeterKellner1 is now predicting proportional swing. A consensus seems to be forming that this election will be very, very bad for Conservatives.
Forget 1997; the current election is more like 1945 - with the strongest Tory areas suffering most. This is terrible news for @RishiSunak In 1945, Labour owed its landslide to this pattern. Compared with what would have happened under uniform swing, it doubled Labour's majority
This is great. Interesting to see how close 3/4 MRPs are once vote share is equalised. Seems that Survation’s unique probabilistic methodology is making a big difference.
How much of the variation in the MRPs is down to different poll numbers and how much is due to differing models? Based on an idea from @ABLPoli, I've equalised the national vote shares for the four MRPs, which should broadly show this.
Two records broken in our latest results at Deltapoll: 1) The Tories lowest support we have recorded this Parliament, 21%. 2) The widest gap in net approval between Starmer and Sunak we have ever recorded, 45 points. So, yes, I suppose it has been a bad week for Sunak.
That’s right. This is the lowest support we have registered for the Tories this Parliament.
Just eyeballing this graph - are Cons lower now with DeltaPoll than they were under Truss?
“Neither leader is popular.” That’s (sort of) true but, as this graph shows, there is a world of difference between them. And that’s what matters in a campaign.
The polls rarely change. No matter what happens during the campaign (Farage, debates, manifestos etc.), your null hypothesis should ALWAYS be no change. Reject this hypothesis only in the face of clear evidence from several pollsters over time.
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