Dr. Reginald
@KadzutuIn God we trust, everyone else bring data…Edward Deming
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Came across an interview I did in 2021. Were I spelt out what will happen come 2022 Kenya needs a more data driven policy approach and pragmatic solutions to its economic problems. @nderi_j @Ramah_Nyang @JimiWanjigi @AmbokoJH @OkiyaOmtatah
The problems Kenya is facing now .. were predicted by @IEAKwame and @Kadzutu among others. 2022 was a presidential election that was never going to a good one for anyone to win x.com/CharlieTTEcon/…
Agreed - whoever wins Kenya’s August election is going to have to take some unpopular decisions. @IEAKwame is a good follow for Kenya macro
Kumbe @Kadzutu had warned us. Debt and corruption is our undoing.
Reginald Kadzutu-Economist: Kenya has the opportunity to become industrialised but we need to deal with corruption & also curb debt. Anyone coming to Kenya right now knows that future taxation will go up due to debt repayment that needs to be done #DayBreak @VickyRubadiri
Government doesn’t create jobs it’s role is to create an environment for private sector to grow and create jobs. Kenya government needs to sit with creditors to deal with the debt issue if not country will stagnate for years to come @nderi_j @LarryMadowo
Presenting a paper that introduces two novel tools: 1. A synthetic composite index that identifies whether a country is more prone to external or internal shocks and 2. An econometric model that identifies the de facto exchange rate regime, a country is in. @IMFAfrica @AfDB_Group
By the time of handshake the boat was sinking, Covid hastened what was going to happen, Exports dropped and imports increased to 3x exports.And came in Njoro keeping a crawling peg of kes from 2015 95-103, exchange rate misalignment, manufacturing shrunk, agriculture under funded
I don’t understand this desire to blame the handshake when the problems started beating us in 2013.Jubilee first term expenditure grew by 57%,revenue by around 22% accumulated deficit was 2t which had to be borrowed, they overspent by 40% revenue to expenditure
I think @Kadzutu was anointed the 'doomsday prophet' and neither market participants had an easier time. CBK called them out. Inadvertently, it's now coming to pass.
In May 2019, @Kadzutu made the same argument about the KES being over-valued. This was part of his argument then: youtube.com/watch?v=GsTJcT…
Stepping in the accelerator and brakes at the same time= lots of noise no movement
They were calling for ~120 and CBK rejected that claim saying the IMF’s model was wrong and their model had a better rate for the Shilling. @RencapMan had bolder calls for 140+. @Kadzutu around that time was calling for 130+.
Folks, if someone is trying to convince you that you would receive a maisonette or flat in Nairobi for Kshs. 2400 per month, then he's betting on your being dull-witted. And if you believe him, then you are.
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