KT Financial Group
@KablerThomasProvide comprehensive financial services to help your financial performance. Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC https://t.co/63HpDQS36I https://t.co/kWAtT5viCb
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World's largest companies by market cap & the most valued companies Source: Reza Zahiri
#LPLOutlook '24 is here: ow.ly/x7FP50QhVrS Highlights: 👉#SP500 YE target: 4,850-4,950 👉10y Treasury yield YE target: 3.75%-4.25% 👉Mild, short-lived recession, 1% US GDP growth 👉Steady decline in inflation, #Fed cuts midyear Thx in advance for a retweet @LPLResearch!
Stocks down in October, but still higher for the year? November has been higher the past 7 times. Final two months higher 89% of the time as well.
The past 10 pre-election years saw the S&P 500 bottom today (on average).
Yes, September is the worst month for stocks on avg, as you've probably heard 10,000 times by now. The good news is when up 10% YTD or more and down in August? Sept higher 8 of 10 times and up median 2.6% (since 1950).
The Top Performing S&P 500 Sectors Over the Business Cycle
Stocks hit another new all-time high versus bonds. No one knows when this will stop, but betting against it right now might not be good for your health. We remain OW stocks and UW bonds for many reasons, but this simple relative strength chart is a big reason why.
There's the first 9-day win streak for the Dow since Aug '17. Worth noting that the past 9 times it was up 9 days in a row, stocks were higher a yr later every time. Going back to WWII, up 85.7% of the time a yr later. This isn't bearish stuff happening.
AAII bulls had one of their largest weekly jumps ever last week. Looking at other lg jumps (>15%) showed that it isn't necessarily a contrarian signal. Since March '09, up a yr later 6/6 and up 22.8% on avg, w/ 1-, 3-, and 6-mo returns solid as well.
6 weeks in a row the S&P 500 hasn't closed up or down >1%. That's a dull market. Coupled with a 12-yr low in 'stocks are the best investment' (@gallup) and small speculators with off the chart shorts (h/t @jaykaeppel). Remember, the masses are rarely right.
“Sell in May and go away” is probably the most widely cited stock market cliché in history. In our #WeeklyMarketCommentary, we take our annual look at this historical seasonal pattern, which has recently started to lose some of its street cred → ow.ly/MK2Q50Ofkb5
Great chart from @bespokeinvest The S&P 500 has gone 6 mos without a new 52-wk low after a bear market. Only twice did it do this and go on to make new lows, in 1946 and 2001. The other 11 saw gains, some saw big gains. In other words, new lows from here would be quite rare.
Let's rewind to the 10/12/2022 low in the S&P 500. Since the 25.4% drop in the index from January 3, 2022 through that day in October, the S&P has rallied 15.1%. That's good, right? @jbuchbinder_LPL takes us on a history lesson → ow.ly/pXlJ50NIKQp
The March #FOMC meeting minutes have some speculating a mild recession later this year. If a recession were to come to pass, it would be the most anticipated recession going back to 1937. On the blog: 6️⃣ things to know about stocks and recessions → ow.ly/yW2e50NILjv
Every situation is different
When #stocks are positive in January, that bodes well for the next 11 months, according to the #JanuaryBarometer. @CarsonGroupLLC's @RyanDetrick says he sees risk-on assets like "high beta drastically outperforming low beta", which is a 180 from last year." $SPX
So there’s a consolation if the other Pennsylvania team wins. #Pittsburgh @steelers
It is that time of year! Stocks tend to do much better when an NFC team wins the Super Bowl. Up 10.0% for the yr on avg and higher 76% of the time vs. and AFC win of 6.9% and 67%. #SuperBowl57
I’m getting one of those. . . Just 90-some more days of training @PGHMarathon
We couldn't wait another minute to share the 2023 @DICKS Pittsburgh Marathon Weekend of Events Race Medals! 😍 🏅 For the first time ever we're giving you a sneak peek of the hardware you can earn by completing one (or more!) of our events! #MOVEPittsburgh #runnerofsteel
S&P 500 set to have a Golden Cross today. This rare event takes place when the 50-day MA>200-day MA. What is special about this one is when it happens more than 10% away from all-time highs (like now) = future returns are impressive. Higher a yr later 15/16 and up 15.7% on avg.
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