Importance Sampling
@ImportanceSamplMarkets, economics, risk, City life.
The French Polymarket whale commissioned polls with a specific alternate methodology, the “neighbor method” 1. What a baller 2. What a killer example of how betting markets can surface contrarian, high quality signals
Friendly reminder that Jane Street built a system to get the 2016 election results MINUTES ahead of the mainstream media and still ended up losing $300M on the trade:
Current situation: 1. Stocks are rising like we have avoided a recession 2. Gold prices are rising like we are heading into a recession 3. Oil prices are rising like we are heading toward WW3 4. Bond prices are falling like geopolitical tensions are easing 5. Crypto is…
Strength is never an accident. The seduction of ease is our decay. You grow strong when you choose to persist. Seneca said, “Our lack of confidence is not the result of difficulty. The difficulty comes from the lack of confidence.” leadershipfreak.blog/2024/10/01/21-…
"if you’ve uncritically accepted what you’ve been taught in economics textbooks about how money is created, you have been misled. That is the situation for Reeves, and it’s why she’s doing bad things with the best of intentions." by @ProfSteveKeen patreon.com/posts/britain-…
Nearly half of remote workers multitask on work calls or complete household chores like unloading the dishwasher or doing a load of laundry, according to the SurveyMonkey poll of 3,117 full-time workers in the US.
Goldman chief economist: Fed goes 25 Goldman global head of trading: Fed goes 50
For those asking, 105 out of 114 economists were wrong (in expecting 25bps).
Amazing! How a mind-boggling device changed economic history - on.ft.com/3MC086s via @FT
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