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History may not repeat, but it certainly rhymes. Trump is being handed a ticking time bomb...
Your chart conveniently left out the 20 years between 1980 and 2001 where equity risk premium was consistently negative.
With this move in bond yields, we are now just 10 basis points away from the Equity Risk Premium shifting negative. Ergo, investors are willing to pay to take on equity risk instead of getting paid to.
🇺🇸S&P 500 The divergence between earnings revisions and S&P 500 performance suggests that investors are looking beyond current analyst estimates, potentially betting on stronger-than-expected corporate performance 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500 ht @MorganStanley #earnings #spx $spx
We have nothing to fear but the fear of missing out.
The amount of cash flowing into ETFs is ridiculous, about $12b/day for the past week (normal is $3-4b). And it's basically all risk-on: $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM, $MTUM, $HYG, $XLF, $IBIT.. Also +$154b in 1M is unprecedented. YTD now $881b, 97% of way to breaking record, $1T in sight..
⚠️MARKETS ARE ALMOST ALWAYS WRONG ABOUT THE FED RATES PATH⚠️ Market expectations of the Fed rates path in medium term is almost always wrong as the below chart shows. Market is now pricing 1.00% worth of cuts by the end of 2025. Is the market too conservative or too…
The average spread for US investment-grade bonds has fallen to its lowest level since 1997.
This is concerning: US full-time employment just dropped by 1.0 MILLION year-over-year, posting the 9th consecutive month of declines. Over the last 18 months, 1.3 MILLION Americans have lost their full-time job, the most since 2020. In past economic cycles, such a prolonged…
Berkshire Hathaway is now holding over 28% of their Assets in Cash, the highest % since 2004. Historical average cash position: 14%. $BRK.B Video: youtube.com/watch?v=ilnqo7…
Marilyn Monroe, One of the most iconic scenes in the history of cinema 🎥 1955.
🚨 New Margin Debt Numbers Are In – and it’s looking bullish! 🚨 Yes, margin debt ticked up 📈, but here’s the stat: markets historically don’t top without margin debt maxing out too. So, if folks are shouting “bubble!” 🫧 … that usually signals there’s more room to run.…
Inflation-adjusted S&P 500 usually moves within a relatively stable range But when the market hits the top of this range, it has marked extremely poor investing times This happened in: 1913, 1929, 1965, and 1999 Each time, the market fell by at least a 60% on an…
The collapse of corporate spreads to record or near-record lows reminds me of the time when the previous consensus that negative 50 or even 100-year interest rates were a normal market phenomenon. Just a few years ago, many experts were arguing that lenders accepting payment to…
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