Bill
@wabufifo1) If you have no edge, correct position size is 'don't buy". 2) Position sizing is determined by downside. 3) All great investing records employed leverage.
A rampaging dollar is a worrisome development. Will it continue higher? No idea - but if it does, not good.
October retail sales higher than expected. September also revised upward (a lot!)
For context. Do we see $1.6 all-time low (high) again? I don't think so unless US dollar truly goes on a rampage like it did during the early aughts.
Agree - labor market ain't weak (at least thru first 2 weeks of November). Disagree - inflation is dead. x.com/wabuffo/status…
Supercore CPI increased to +4.5% y/y Shelter CPI +4.9% y/y and accelerating Average hourly earnings +4% y/y and accelerating the very loud calls for rate cuts in July & August continue to be wrong. Yes, quits & hires fall after huge spikes. No, the labor market is not weak.
Substituting a private sector measure of shelter inflation instead of the BLS measure continues to indicate that the US has been at the Fed's 2% goal for over a year now.
In terms of the deficit, a further cut may increase Federal corporate income taxes collected (depending on the shape of the "Laffer Curve" for corporate income tax rates.) The last cut in 2018 from 35% to 21% certainly increased collections over time.
Are US stocks rising because the odds of a further cut in the Federal corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% has increased with the election sweep? It's just valuation math (if the corporate tax rate cut happens). reuters.com/markets/us/wal…
Are US stocks rising because the odds of a further cut in the Federal corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% has increased with the election sweep? It's just valuation math (if the corporate tax rate cut happens). reuters.com/markets/us/wal…
Optimism is breaking out.... best US recession ever! - strengthening income prospects. - business conditions confidence soars. - inflation expections fall. barrons.com/livecoverage/s…
Here's the data for the new Chapter 11 business cases filed. News you won't get from the macro-bears.
Remember all that hysteria during this summer about rising corporate bankruptcies. Turns out it wasn't true. Total new business bankruptcies during the latest quarter actually fell. Still looks like a reversion to the mean after a pandemic induced anesthetic was…
Yep
Powell says higher Treasury yields are due to stronger growth expectations & less recession risk, minimizing the impact of higher inflation expectations. TIPS yields have risen, yes, but so have inflation exp.
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