Michael Kao
@urbankaoboiGS/J. Aron➡️ Canyon Partners ➡️ Akanthos Capital➡️Kao Family Office 🏦Globetrotter✈️ Headbanger 🤟Star Wars Fan🌌Mixologist🍸 Diver 🤿 INVESTMENT ADVISOR
🔥 across the board. Who could’ve seen this coming?
It’s becoming increasingly evident that the Global Competitive Cutting Cycle will turn into the Global Bait n’ Switch as Pusillanimous Powell will be stymied in his cutting cycle. Result: The USD Wrecking Ball once again becomes the Equilibrating Mechanism between economies.
The “Sell By” Date of Gutless Goolsbee was circa GFC. Why is this guy still in a position of influence?
DOGE can be a game changer if it decreases the amount of Fiscal Red Bull in our wasteful Vodka Red Bull economy, because it could in turn allow less Monetary Depressant. x.com/jstein_wapo/st…
🚨🚨Musk, Ramaswamy today gave us first "DOGE" roadmap; as I understand the key steps...: 1) Put DOGE ppl at each U.S. agency, then use "advanced technology" (AI?) to have them identify "thousands" of regulations to cut across government 2) Give Trump a list of "thousands" of…
Couldn't figure out why $XOP was acting so well given Weak Oil and Strong USD until I added Henry Hub to the chart. Stopped out of my $XOP Puts as I did not expect this spike in Natty!
Bold Bowman is the only Fed Head brave enough to defy Pusillanimous Powell and will be remembered well for it.
The USD Wrecking Ball looks poised to breakout of its 2023-2024 range, and it is going to fuck some shit (technical term) up if it goes back to 2022 highs.
DB's Chart of the Day is a great summary of why Demographics matter. The countries in the left part of this chart are going to have troubles, and if you weight these charts by absolute population size, you see what a gigantic hole China will leave in Global Consumption. Sure,…
I continue to think that an unexpected Peace Dividend will disrupt a lot of markets/trades. You know who you are.
There is a real danger of PEACE breaking out. I say “danger” because so many markets seem to have embedded WAR premiums: Oil, Gold, Defense Stocks Watch for major regime shifts under Trump 2.0. wsj.com/politics/polic…
You can always count on the value agnostic Convertible market to enable the Financial Ourobouros that Saylor has created. Amazing phenomenon.
$MSTR raising $3 billion at 0%(!) for ~3.5 years with 55% conversion premium ($672.40!)... to buy more BTC(!). Truly ninja level work.
He’s invented a Financial Ourobouros. What could possibly go wrong?
If these Jaws can close, any Jaws can close! $MBI vs. $AGO
I single-handedly held up the Carl Vinson in Dec 2021 on a wreck dive trip in Guam! 🤿
China/Star Evolution Mental Model: We witnessed China’s expansion the same way a dying star first expands into a Supergiant. The question is: Who does the ensuing Supernova take out? 😬🤔 Worth a listen: H/t @BurggrabenH youtu.be/zAtUXoewlhI?si…
On a private call about Trumponomics 2.0. Here’s mine:
I thought this was a joke for a second.
FED'S SCHMID: NOW IS THE TIME TO DIAL BACK RESTRICTIVENESS OF POLICY.
We are ALL fucked if it’s a nuke. Anything short of that:
Took a small profit on my $NVDA Put Spreads. The fact that it's one of the few Peas in today's Doomsday Borscht makes me think it goes higher. No edge/total spec. My time is better spent elsewhere. x.com/UrbanKaoboy/st…
I've not done the work, so this is admittedly a flyer, but it would be a fitting end to this Everything Bubble if $NVDA turned out to be the next Enron given its $SMCI entanglements. Breast-signing just might be the tip of the iceberg (pun intended).😎 Just bought $NVDA OTM…
Yesterday's Russia/Ukraine-related Oil spike is the latest FADING opportunity, imho. If Zelensky so much as looks at Russian Oil infrastructure, he will lose all support from Trump.
United States Trends
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