Steven Nuss
@stevennussPhD student @SFU_polisci, studying Canadian/American political behaviour, psychology, methods. Find me here: https://t.co/CyZtHssrA6
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Feels appropriate today to just pin this tweet indefinitely: #COVID19AB #ableg
my official analysis of the news is there is too much of it and i would like it to stop
This is a disaster for US security & alliances. Of all Trump's decisions so far, might be the worst. Tulsi Gabbard has consistently parroted pro-Putin propaganda. Director of National Intelligence is a critical position for which she has absolutely no experience and skill.
If Trump follows through with this it kills comprehensive intelligence sharing between European NATO states and the US. Brits, French, Italians, Poles will all make sure to hold most sensitive information back.
Trump is expected to soon announce Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard as DNI, per people close to him.
Identity politics is bound up with the real material stuff of life—like whether Black people can have non-fatal encounters with the police, whether trans people can move safely in their neighborhoods, and whether women have access to reproductive health care.
Three big lessons here IMHO - (1) voters have been punishing incumbents everywhere, regardless of political orientation, length in office etc (2) Voters have been switching to all kinds of opposition, regardless of political orientation but...(3) radical anti-system parties (of…
While the US moves towards illiberalism, Harris urged Americans to uphold liberal democratic values. Her graceful concession is in that spirit and it's so important, and shouldn't be taken for granted.
We must accept the results of this election. Earlier today, I spoke with President Trump and congratulated him on his victory. I told him that we will help him and his team with that transition, and we will engage in a peaceful transfer of power.
What I'm saying directly, rather than implying, is that that "illiberal democracies" exist and their voters are not committed to democracy. Lots of countries have voting, but voting, by itself, is not a guarantee of a civic culture.
What Tom Nichols is implying here is that the 51% of Americans who voted for Trump don’t care about American democracy, which is an odd thing to say considering that casting a ballot for your preferred candidate is the biggest democratic act a citizen can engage in. But ok.
My initial take on Trump's win: goodauthority.org/news/where-to-… His gains were widespread, so explanations should start with the broadest factors -- not with bespoke stories about states, cities, counties, and groups. The simplest explanation: party of unpopular incumbent loses. 1/2
The anti-incumbent wave worldwide takes an illiberal turn in the US. Even with US imperfections, we haven’t lived in a post-WWII political order where the US has moved continually towards illiberalism. The ramifications of this turn will impact Canada at home & around the world.
The Electoral College - which I once defended as a symbol of federalism - is going to produce another minority-vote president, and that's setting up a crisis of legitimacy. American institutions can't keep producing that outcome. But that's a subject for another day. /2x
My latest for @ConversationCA, on the crucial importance of losing in politics. theconversation.com/to-the-loser-g…
Elon Musk plans to spend election night with Donald Trump, giving the former president direct access to the person controlling X, a key information platform, on what could be a chaotic evening. nyti.ms/3Apvv1R
Attacking vulnerable kids may make Smith's UCP base happy and help secure a large leadership vote, but when the weekend is over she needs to address the rest of the province. And her own conscience.
One of the theses of Harris' campaign: that for weak identifiers, American identity might overwhelm their partisan/ideological identity. One week until we see if it works!🤞🏼
Vice President Harris: The patriots at Normandy, Selma, Seneca Falls, and Stonewall… They did not sacrifice only to see us cede our freedoms and submit to the will of another petty tyrant. The United States is the greatest idea humanity ever devised. In 7 days, let us turn the…
📊 Polling for Black/Latino support in 2024 vs 2020. Key takeaways: - Median poll of Black support is similar in '20 and '24 but more extreme polls in opposite directions in the two years. - Median shift down in Latinos polls but '24 very close to estimated '20 validated vote
we now have estimates for key states AZ: Trump 51/Harris 47 GA: Trump 51/Harris 46 MI: Harris 51/Trump 46 NV: Harris 51/Trump 47 NC: Trump 50/Harris 48 PA: Harris 49/Trump 48 TX: Trump 51/Harris 47 WI: Harris 50/Trump 47 Full results here: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/stateprezapp20…
just released: national estimates from CES pre-election interviews with over 70k american adults National LVs (Oct. 1 - 25): Harris: 51% Trump: 47% Dynamic crosstabs: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/prez2024pre/ Release: sites.tufts.edu/cooperativeele…
Loser’s consent is vital for democracy; so, these statements are important and shouldn’t be taken for granted. #bcpoli
I was the Campaign Manager for the Provincial Conservatives in BC. This morning, I personally took part in counting some of the final ballots in Surrey-Guildford. @ElectionsBC staff were all incredibly diligent in their work and very thorough in ensuring transparency. I feel…
Claims about an unprecedented gender gap in presidential vote choice in 2024 are overstated. A thread. 🧵
Do you want to see how much the margin in a pre-election poll can vary based on "reasonable" decisions by a pollster? Check this out: disq.us/t/4rd8rfy
“The U.S. establishment is sleepwalking toward a crisis.” ⤵️
A short-ish explanation of why the Premier is still the Premier until they resign or are dismissed: lagassep.com/2018/09/28/sti…
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Marc-Antoine Rancourt
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Policy, Elections, And Representation Lab
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Richard Einarson 🏳️🌈
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