THANKFUL: Great news to share on this Monday is the final advisory was issued for #Sara and has totally fallen apart. It was still extremely impactful to Honduras causing nearly 3 feet of rain there. Despite a bit of a scare in the data early on that I am sure you remember…

Recent wastewater tests have detected H5 bird flu in the following locations: Lompoc, Los Angeles, Napa, San Francisco, Ontario, Paso Robles, Redwood City, Riverside, Sacramento, San Jose, Sunnyvale, and Turlock.

The H5N1 sequence found in the hospitalized teenager shows two important mutations that improve the virus's ability to bind to human α2,6 sialic acid receptors. This adaptation is crucial for the virus's potential to spread between humans. The virus is evolving. #H5N1

"Fire engulfs a hospital ward in northern India, killing 10 newborn babies" - NPR #SmartNews l.smartnews.com/p-CXihy/xGAHQL

Regardless in the low chance #Sara re-develops in the Gulf next week, slug of tropical moisture will merge with incoming front and come across Florida. This tropical plume of moisture should lead to some rain and storms Tuesday-Wednesday next week.

Early Friday AM NHC update on Sara. Still expected to fizzle over the Yucatan. Leftovers mingle with approaching front midweek into the SE/Florida. spaghettimodels.com

Latest Thursday AM NHC track update. Keeping that land interaction through the Yucatan. Helping keep TD #19 weak. Will see what it can do on the other side but right now trends are our friend. Mingles with midweek approaching front with heavy rains into Florida and some storms…

Current atmospheric setup. 1- High pressure has pushed a little more than prior models showed. This is keeping closer to Central America mingling land interaction and holding back from Yucatan gap. 2- High pressure currently to the west is blocking west movement keeping TD #19…

Love this trend graphic from @burgwx -- it's a super ensemble of every major computer model averaged together. Each line is the average of them all over the last day, and notice the trend west (more land interaction in Honduras and Mexico) meaning weaker overall system. Whatever…

Latest overnight EURO/GFS ensembles on TD #19. Keeping that trend west and weak. Note the colors. Not seeing the number of stronger chances we did just yesterday. Lots of land interaction keeps it weak entering the Gulf. That is the latest thinking. We are within a week so each…

Latest EURO/GFS ensembles for Invest 99 on weathernerds.org. Sitting underneath high pressure into this weekend. Then liftoff likely north early week. Eventual turn NE likely for midweek'ish impacts to watch Florida. Track ideas remain similar. spaghettimodels.com

Some latest models on Invest 99. EURO/GFS close in thinking. Fast moving Hurricane turning through Florida midweek next week. High resolution models starting to run. HWRF strong. A stronger future Sara this weekend means stronger likely on exit. Some weakening in the Gulf.…

SARA SCENARIOS: Door #1 could likely become a high-end hurricane when in the Caribbean if avoids land interaction. Meanders some this weekend then lifts towards the FL Peninsula mid-next week. Could be be central or north-central FL? I guess, but that would be unprecedented. I'd…

Tuesday Afternoon: Tropical formation chances now up to 90% in the western Caribbean. Expecting “Sara” to form by the end of this week. All of Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula need to watch this closely.

0z EURO bomber ensembles says Florida needs to get ready for a possible hurricane strike towards the end of next week.

Here is what cooking. 1- Low pressure sliding west. Trapped for a few days giving time to develop. 2- High pressure starts to slide east with approaching front allowing turn NW/N. 3- Front approaching opening door for system to lift. 4- High moving out allowing system to turn…

Historical storms from 1851-2023 for November 11-20th here. Storms in the Caribbean track N/NE. This one next week has that feel. Models agree. Lots to watch Florida. spaghettimodels.com

We preach "look for consistency to build confidence" so often, yet here it is already. The ICON and EURO AI are really quite surprisingly similar in projection, bringing a hurricane into the Gulf from the Caribbean next week. ICON (L) and EUROAI (R) both valid out one week, next…

TROPICAL SCENARIOS: Listen, the model and pattern data is very convincing -- meaning that there is a high confidence this system is not a "fantasy" in the data and is credible. In short there appears to be two camps of outcomes. Scenario 1: Potential #Sara gets forced northward…

Latest Monday 12z GFS ensembles for early next week. Painting general idea of Caribbean spot to watch. Some pull N/NE which is a historical track this time of year. Likely watching for several days before things are clear. spaghettimodels.com