Joshua Senechal
@josh081290Meteorologist | Agriculture | Aviation | Energy
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Long range mets be like The SSW!!! Pacific Ocean be like:
Doc V is playing Call of Duty Warzone! Over 150 wins, 2.26KD twitch.tv/mjventrice
We're in big trouble in the NE at this rate- drought imminent next 10 days. And how bout that upper level pattern by early July...
Proud of last night's @CallofDuty #WarZone victory with @josh081290 No audio (headset issues) but was able to crush the opposing final teams with a beastly 5-kill streak with a sniper rifle. youtu.be/diTIl_eezLs
Triple rocket kill to win the #warzone. They didn't know what hit them. With @DanLeonard_wx @josh081290
$2.22 for gas in Bedford,NH and $2.29 in Nashua. No change in prices the past two weeks. Nothing has happened to the oil market recently, right?
This is the ideal ridge position for suppressing wind generation across the TX panhandle. Another deep midday wind valley looks certain for ERCOT. Not what you like to see on a 70GW day.
Talk about a setup for bullish ERCOT energy prices @C__Radd I’ll take the under on that wind valley.
After next week's warmup, EPS brings winter back big time heading into mid Feb. #EPO
trying to get higher res video: Potential vorticity view of the recent breakdown of the Polar Stratospheric Vortex: 10hPa Ertel Potential Vorticity, 25 Dec 2018 - 05 Jan 2019, GEOS-5 analysis.
Once we get through a bearish 6-10/11-15 day period, tropical forcing is expected to become more favorable (Via WSI VP200 & CPC MJO index). This may FINALLY allow for the much awaited cold pattern shift later in the month.
When you're approaching the climatologically coldest time of year for many of the major demand centers in the CONUS, this is just about the worst case scenario for energy demand. Via today's 12z EPS:
Clsssic example of high pressure wedging/CAD across interior New England causing temperatures to run cold and demand to outperform. Nice afternoon upside in ISO-NE.
While the highly anticipated January cold pattern shift continues to get delayed (And stratospheric madness aside), as the MJO circumvents the globe and pushes across Africa, tropical forcing may finally lend a helpful hand in shifting the pattern colder weeks 3-4.
Today is the last day to get some solid runs in before a widespread 1-3” of rainfall pummels ski country Friday. Worst case scenario for those who booked holiday plans up north this year.
When the euro weeklies looked cold by the end of the month only to delay everything by three weeks. m.youtube.com/watch?v=4waVZX…
Well-advertised milder pattern coming next week with big Aleutian low. Lower-than-normal US gas demand starting Dec. 13, but cold coming back by end of month, starting in W US and working E with enormous pattern flip in NE Pac, and AO- setting up for big things heading into Jan
Monster day-ahead load forecast bust in ERCOT today due to widespread cloud cover and rainfall driving strong lighting load. Temperatures are also running colder than expected. Quick tip for any ISO with widespread cloud cover and precipitation: take the upside.
Big changes in the overnight European ensemble are noted in the North Pacific with trends towards increased heights & a swift death of the +EPO. These trends support a colder pattern shift/period of higher heating demand towards the end of the month. #natgas
Once the MJO runs its course heading into late December, the European Weeklies suggest a flip back towards a colder (potentially much colder) pattern starting near Xmas week as ridging shifts back towards the west coast with signs for a blockbuster entrance into 2019.
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