Manish M. Modi
@goldcannonModi Capital Fund, House of Modi, Swanai, Beadspoint, Modi Development, LLC
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Current consensus Q1'24 Eanrnings growth rates for the S&P 500 $SPX is +5.0%. If the energy sector $XLE is excluded, the growth rate improves to +8.1%. Comm. services $XLC sector has the highest earnings growth rate 26.8%)
“Be quiet, work hard, and stay healthy. It’s not ambition or skill that is going to set you apart but sanity.”
These two simple indicators, based on the NASDAQ price and the NASDAQ A/D Line, have done a good job calling short-term reversals in the index.#qqq
Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger on crypto in 2018. Absolutely nailed it. Turns out the old guys actually know what they’re talking about….
Tech Stocks This Year: 1. $META: -70% 2. $PYPL: -60% 3. $AMD: -59% 4. $NFLX: -57% 5. $NVDA: -54% 6. $HOOD:-54% 7. $TSLA: -52% 8. $AMZN: -49% 9. $INTC: -48% 10. $BABA: -45% 11. $GOOGL: -39% 12. $UBER: -39% 13. $MSFT: -32% 14. $AAPL: -25% This is starting to look worse than 2001.
These two simple indicators, based on NASDAQ price and the NASDAQ A/D Line, have done a good job calling short-term reversals in the index.#qqq
Another 10-15% decline for equities wouldn't surprise me, but on a short-term basis, the market is oversold. This suggests that the old lows may well hold up for a bit at first.
Will history repeat itself? If so, a massive spike in volatility would start in the next ~30 days taking the $VIX all the way up to 90 in the next few months.
Current situation: 1. $SPX falling in 100 point gaps like 2001 2. $VIX down like we are in a bull market 3. Commodities crashing like we have deflation 4. Treasury yields are at 15 year high like inflation is 20% 5. Sentiment mixed like nothing is happening Nothing adds up.
AAII Sentiment Survey: *Bullish sentiment is at/below 20% for the just the 50th time in the history of the survey *6th highest level of bearish sentiment ever *1st time pessimism is above 60% of consecutive weeks *Over 1,800 weekly readings since 1987 aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Emanuel Derman has written a classic. A memoir, confession, and an essay on ethics, philosophy of science, and professional practice. Love it. Check it out: amzn.to/3dvx11k
Options Bubble: Friday's 8.4 MILLION contracts = largest SPY Put Volume of all time
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