Eric Corbeil
@ercorbeilInvestment Strategy, Fan of Travel. All tweets are for informational purposes only.
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According to the NBER, the Covid-19 recession was the shortest on record. This recession ended the longest recorded economic expansion, which started in June 2009 and lasted 128 months.
Interesting analysis from @PineBridge: Historical asset class performance during four phases of ISM New Orders. The firm argued that in past periods when ISM new orders were coming off their boil, as they appear poised to do later in H2, credit assets have tended to outperform.
Individual investors’ share of U.S. #equities trading volume keeps growing with a large jump of almost 10% share since online brokerages moved en masse to commission-free trading and the Covid-19 pandemic.
Is monetary policy overly stimulative? The spread between US Real GDP growth and the 2-year Real interest rate is by far the largest on record. #FOMC
Interesting to note each time the #Fed engaged in quantitative easing, #yields rose during the #QE period and fell when QE ended. #Macro #rates $TLT
It will be interesting to monitor future changes in the owners' equivalent rent component (42% of core CPI) as some forward looking indicators are pointing to an imminent jump in this #inflation component. $DXY #yields #Macro
Inflation and unemployment measures are already close to levels that historically pushed the #Fed to start a rate hike cycle. The new monetary policy framework of flexible average #inflation targeting still suggests that using history as a guide may be flawed this time around.
… changes in the @ism help to explain the two dominant drivers of equity markets: 1) Earnings Revisions (earnings!); and 2) Financial Conditions (valuations!). Other factors can create noise or volatility, but the cycle always wins. #stocks #macro #earnings #valuations #risk
The business cycle evolves via an “action-reaction” framework. Fluctuations in the cost of money result, with a lag, in fluctuations in economic activity. PMIs will continue to plateau at these strong levels until early 2022. #macro #businesscycle #stocks #earnings @ism
The sharp turn in the correlation between daily changes in stock and bond prices is consistent with higher levels of realized inflation. #stocks #yields
Bull Markets tend to be a bit more choppy in their second year but returns are generally positive. Volatility is normal in healthy markets.
Minimizing cash allocations among U.S. equity mutual funds has been a clear trend over the past ten years. #equities
A different commodity bull run: Miners are returning more money to investors. Dividends are almost equal to capital expenditures, which rose to $75B last year among 45 of the world’s largest miners. #Commodities
Today's consumer confidence report still portrayed a tight labor market with the differential between the % of consumers reporting that jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get increasing to 34.6 in May. Impressive jump over the past few months. #Macro
History suggests that asset classes can perform very differently in different inflation environments. #macro #stocks #bonds #Commodities
Interesting statistics from yesterday's edition of the @WSJ : "The #fashion industry contributes up to 10% of global carbon emissions. By comparison, commercial aviation generates just 2% to 3%, according to @Citi analysts". #ESG
Wages have risen quickly this year in low-wage industries. Lower-wage workers also report much higher pay expectations for potential jobs. #inflation #macro
Something to keep in mind: Several of the Consumer Packaged Goods companies that participated at this week's Global Staples Forum warned that input costs pressures might only get worse next year, as hedges gradually roll off. #inflation #macro
The correlation of the daily changes in stock prices and bond #yields over the past 100 days is now in negative territory and at its lowest level in more than 15 years. #bonds #stocks
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