I believe this is possible for Bitcoin in 2023-2025. ~12 months from now (halving): ~$50K. ~12/18 months after halving: ~$150K. *Based on halving cycles, S2F theory, diminishing returns, logarithmic growth, etc.
In the previous Bitcoin cycle, when the TSI indicator crossed bullish, Bitcoin pumped ~6X in ten months. From ~$10K to ~$60K. This cycle TSI crossed bullish four months ago around ~$30K.
Bitcoin with Realized Price (RP). When RP makes a new ATH after a Bitcoin crash, the real bull market starts. This is going to happen soon, it seems. In 2020 the covid crash delayed it, but it's valid. From this point to price peak: Cycle 1 = 83X / Cycle 2 = 30X / Cycle 3 = 7X.
Bitcoin Monthly chart with RSI. Imagine converting scarce Bitcoin to fiat money right now... The real mania phase hasn't even started yet.
#Bitcoin Halving 1 - Halving 2: avg $500 ✅ Halving 2 - Halving 3: avg $5K ✅ Halving 3 - Halving 4: avg $50K ✅ Halving 4 - Halving 5: avg $500K ? 👾 (BTW: This is basically PlanB's Bitcoin S2F model simplified)
Bitcoin spend a lot of time below this price line, so I guess this pattern, or perhaps 'model', failed. But in the end, the conclusion of Bitcoin $100K *before* 2025... It wouldn't surprise me at all. x.com/bitharington/s…
Bitcoin 2X every year. Ignore the price bubbles. $100000 before 2025 🙏🏽
In the four years Bitcoin cycle, we always see at least a 2X in the 'second year' of the bull market. In 2016 it was 125% and in 2020 it was 301%. If we copy this pattern to the current Bitcoin cycle, we will see a new ATH and *at least* $85000 in 2024.
When the Bitcoin price reaches the fair market value (purple line) it will range for a while, before the real crazy price pump starts, and this pump coincides with a new ATH. We are already in this range now. If we follow this pattern we will see $121.000+ (red line). Patience 🧘🏽
Bitcoin is up around X 2,65 in 2023. It's not Dec 31 yet, but let's say this is it: From $16.500 to $43.725. If Bitcoin simply repeats this math in 2024, we will reach ($43.725 X 2,65) $115.871 in 2024. Both a new Bitcoin ATH and $100.000+ in 2024 would not surprise me.
Bitcoin chart, 3 month candles, with SMI and Fisher indicators. Also, halving and ETFs coming soon. Bitcoin Bullish 2024 🐂
Zoom out. Bitcoin (Monthly) with RSI. Far from overbought.
It was awesome. x.com/bitharington/s…
Converting fiat to precious Bitcoin when it's 75% down from recent ATH is awesome.
So far, the orginal PlanB S2F model is real and valid. Bitcoin behaves differently every cycle, but the model remains intact, so far. Question is: Will the orginal Bitcoin S2F model still be valid next cycle? We have to reach $500K/$600K before halving 5 in 2028 to validate.
Dollar cost averaging (DCA) Bitcoin when it's 50%+ down from al time high (ATH) is fun. Let's do this next cycle again. Don't ingnore the Bitcoin cycle pattern.
Bitcoin price action is boring? Yes, it is. The Bollinger Bands are pretty tight again (Daily chart). Nothing is happening. So, now we just wait for the next move. Four of the five last aggressive moves in the Boll Bands, since the bull market started one year ago, were UP/green.
Bitcoin 3 Months chart, with SMI & Fisher indicators. This feels very bullish 🐂
Total Bitcoin supply is 19.5M today. Remove the Satoshi/lost coins; let's say 4-5M. The actual available supply is ~15M Bitcoin. Whales, companies, exchanges, etc own a lot. All we need is 10M people on this planet hodling 1 Bitcoin, and that's it. That's when we go up forever.
Bitcoin is still relatively cheap, but the ultimate buying zone is already over, it seems. This is the Bitcoin monthly chart with the MFI indicator.
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