Michael Kao
@UrbanKaqboyGS Commodities Trader➡Canyon Cvt/Cap Arb➡Akanthos Multi-Arb/Distressed➡Kao Family Office🏦Globetrotter✈ Headbanger🤘Star Wars Fan🌌 Mixologist🍸Diver🤿
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Save the date! twitter.com/BurggrabenH/st…
Ladies & gentlemen, this should be fun. Hope to get a lot of you crude, tanker or refinery gurus engaged here. Let us make it a civilised conversation. #OOTT @JoeBeattie11 @OilandEnergy @agnostoxxx @ed_fin @OpenSquareCap twitter.com/i/spaces/1MnGn…
Oh look, the market is so fearful of a US default and those "toxic USTs" that it's scrambling to BUY ALL TENORS OF THE YIELD CURVE! X-Date = Y2K
Looking for an out-of-the-box way to hedge your Oil exposures?
Oil getting slammed (and the fact that China has bought so much of our SPR bbls) leads me to think that China is incrementally LESS worried about CNY devaluation now. Maybe PBOC steers closer to Scylla?🤔
Musings of the Day, 5/2/23: The market is uncompromising in both its meritocratic and its humbling nature, and it does not care how many followers you have or how much AUM you have.
Two sets of "Jaws" worth watching: 1. Oil Stocks vs. Oil 2. High Duration Stocks vs. High Duration Bonds
Today’s price action reminds me of being lowered into a ~3000 year old tomb near Saqqara. Reminder that treasures tend to get buried deep in the ground and not lying around the surface!
I said over a month ago that CHINA would be the big story. Still early, but CNH approaching 7 again despite DXY weakness and OIL completely retracing the OPEC+ surprise cut price action makes me worried that my thesis might be on the right track. twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/st…
Re: Geopolitics/Inflation/USD-Ball In A China Shop. Today I divert your attention from the provincial woes of wayward Silicon Valley lenders to the REAL ticking time bomb of the global financial system -- China. urbankaoboy.substack.com/p/re-geopoliti…
Interesting thread. To me, declining or even negative GDP growth is a NECESSARY but not necessarily SUFFICIENT condition to drive Inflation down significantly this cycle. The Fed likely has more wood to chop.
Reflecting on super Q1 GDP. +1.1% hides something much more solid than it was. Real private sales up, volatile parts good. Net-net better than Q4. Forward view comes down to non-resi investment. FORWARD: 0-0.5% avg for 4 qtrs Worst qtr -1 to -2% (ex-credit crunch) 1/
Another interesting Nabatean fusion of its lion motifs into a Greek krater-style vessel.
I loved this structure at Petra. Note the Egyptian influences above (obelisks) and the Greek Hellenistic influences below (triangular pediment, columns). Seems that Nabatean architecture/sculpture fused many cultural influences together.
Black Goat (US) to Black & White Goat (France): Jump (to CNY)! I dare you! I double-dare you!
Yeah? Let’s see what happens if France actually “diworsified” its reserves into CNY.
France’s credit rating was cut by Fitch Ratings in another blow to politically embattled President Emmanuel Macron trib.al/zJeuQGD
Nabatean bracelets are kinda “Chrome Heartsy.”
I heard that Uncle Joe’s sister’s third cousin’s husband doesn’t think much of Kim Jong Un either.
The steady and relentless march of the Dimon Empire continues. wsj.com/articles/jpmor…
This is a great overview by @UrbanKaoboy of the supposed de-dollarization and inherent problems China faces. Jibes with everything I know. urbankaoboy.com/p/re-geopoliti…
Musings of the Day, 4/29/23: Heading to the Dead Sea today. Alas, $FRC appears to have been found floating face-down in it.
I guess $FRC / Persephone couldn’t leave Hades after all. 👆
Petra…everyone has seen the iconic pictures of the “Treasury,” but I bet few know of the full extent of this site or of the Nabatean civilization behind it. I sure didn’t before this trip!
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