Ryan Detrick, CMT
@RyanlDetrickChief Market Strategist at The @CarsonGroupLLC for the perfect BBQ and host to Facts vs Feelings podcast. Helping you find your freedom one day at a time!
Did you hear Janet Yellen isn't looking for a recession? Here's a live pic of what she was reading last week before she made those comments! @CarsonResearch @sonusvarghese
Thanks @AlmanacTrader for sending me the latest Stock Traders Almanac! Just in time for the most bullish 6 months of the year. ;)
Our latest @CarsonResearch Facts vs Feelings is out! This week, @sonusvarghese and I discussed stocks in a correction, the red hot economy, and what to expect from the Fed. We also got in the Halloween spirit. open.spotify.com/episode/4qszSq…
Excited to join @DanLoney21 on @WhartonBizDaily on @SXMBusiness Ch. 132 in a few minutes. We'll discuss higher rates, earnings, the Fed, and more! Tune in now.
For all the talk about an October crash, the S&P 500 fell 2.2% for the month. Given a major war unexpectedly broke out in the Middle East, you could say down 2.2% is a pleasant win.
Nice one from @sonusvarghese on the consumer. Real personal incomes continue to trend higher. Yes, that means they are growing faster than inflation. Many have been trying for a year to say the consumer is cracking, but this is a big reason why it hasn't happened.
Some great charts in the Barron's Big Money Poll this weekend. This one stood out. Only 12% of clients are bullish. I can't disagree, virtually no one is optimistic right now. Makes you wonder how much bad news is priced in currently?
Bill Gross is in the news by saying we'll be in a recession by the end of the year. I'm old enough to remember when he said 'the cult of equities is dead'. All stocks did was gain 118% the next 7 years, for an annualized return of 11.8%.
It might not feel like it given the rough patch for stocks, but be aware that we are entering one of the most seasonally bullish periods of the year right now.
Here are the longest Monday win streaks ever.
It was bound to happen eventually, but the longest Monday win streak ever for the S&P 500 just ended at 15 in a row. The previous longest streak ever was 11 in 2005. Also, there was a 10-day win streak in 2020.
NBER looks at 6 indicators to determine if we are in a recession or not. Short answer is there's absolutely no recession now or in the near future. Very strong industrial production, consumption, and wholesale/retail sales the past 3 months leading the way.
The current 15-day win streak for the S&P 500 on Monday is the longest ever. Here's the longest win streaks for each day of the week. The longest for any day was 22 in a row on Friday in 1955.
Manufacturing up 2.1% YTD. Again, if all you followed was the ISMs and PMIs, you'd never know this. Why following the hard data makes a lot of sense.
A lot of construction activity despite 8% mortgage rates
Here's our latest @CarsonResearch Take Five video. This week, @sonusvarghese and I are on location in California and we discuss more signs there simply isn't a recession on the horizon. youtu.be/OpMpDQHcP2o?si…
Forward 12-month S&P 500 earnings are at an all-time high. Yes, this is an estimate and yes it can turn lower in real life the next 12 months. But given the continued doubt in the economy, what if it doesn't and things get stronger?
HEADS UP: I’ll be live on The Morning Show on @stockmkttv with @allstarcharts and @sstrazza TODAY at 8:50 am ET. Watch it here: stockmarketmedia.com
I am set to be on @CNBCWEX with @FrankCNBC tomorrow at 5am ET. Get up early (or just stay up all night) and see you there!
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