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@artura_polan
@ArturoBrno
New monthly birth table is out! I reworked the design again and added some additional countries.
Amusingly, this rate of 1.44 is almost exactly what Japan’s fertility rate was (1.43) when the BBC aired the infamous 2013 documentary “No Sex Please, We’re Japanese,” which sought to blame lack of children on frigid Japanese men and their video games news.sky.com/story/fertilit…
From my new paper on Korea, where this has been happening for generations piie.com/publications/w…
New charts today in the Financial Times show how the UN's population projections have been consistently way too high. Compare the gentle curves of projections with the steep drops in the actual data for many countries. The real data shows a dramatic collapse in births. 🧵.
Birth rates are plummeting, The UN and other forecasters keep missing the mark Fertility in Latin America has dropped off a cliff. Do we need to update our models? Asks @jburnmurdoch
With 20,098 births in August and thus 5.9% more than in August 2923, South Korea continues its small recovery of the birth rate. The overall decline this year so far is 0.4%, so there is a chance that the TFR this year will be slightly higher than last year‘s 0.72.
New birth update. I added a bunch of countries that don't publish monthly/quarterly/semestral birth numbers but have annual figures nevertheless.
Just wait for another 100-200 years of depopulation and low fertility and you'll see borders change a lot. Countries today will just become city-states, other countries will be sprawling regional empires. Just like the past, before the recent invention of the nation-state
Most important demo. news of the yr is beginning of TFR decline in the DRC with TFR being 5.5 in 2023-24 down from 6.2 in 2017-18 because of what it implies about TFR decline in neighbouring countries. Uganda TFR being 4.5 in 2024 vs 5 in 2018-19 also fits in with this pattern.
Birth table, Italy edition! Contrary to last year, where the South had stable birth numbers while Central and Northern Italy were on the decline, this year births are on the decline in the South again.
We now know that the TFR of the US (1.66 kids per woman in 2022) would be 1.53 if only US-born women are considered. But this effect of migrants on the TFR varies significantly between the states: Maryland gets the biggest boost, while South Dakota's TFR gets lowered by migants.
With the TFR of the DR Congo now at 5.5, the only countries remaining with a TFR of 6 children or more per woman are Somalia, Chad, Niger and Angola (the Angolan data is 10 years old already, so they are likely below 6 as well now).
The total fertility rate (TFR) in Democratic Republic of the Congo is 5.5 children per woman according to the 2023-2024 DHS, a decline from 6.2 recorded in the 2017-2018 MICS. Urban TFR (4.2) is much lower than rural TFR (6.4).
The new monthly birth update. The situation pretty much remains the same compared to a month ago.
Notable how both Spain (1988) & Italy (1984) fell below a TFR of 1.5 permanently prior to Japan (1995), yet Japan for decades was the country focused on for low TFR, Italy went below 1.5 a decade earlier but not as many stories about its population issues until post 2010.
No. They just adjust and assume the global fertility collapse will be fixed the very next year. Here is Korea, whose fertility collapse is supposed reverse in 2024 and then climb upward. Spoiler, the first half of 2024 has already happened, and 🇰🇷 births are down another 4%. 4/6
Incompetence in one figure: UN 2024 projection for India TFR: - fertility has declined at constant slope for 60 years - all recent data points toward a continuing decline - no other country succeeded at stopping TFR decline => yet UN predicts TFR to magically stabilize overnight
Next UN pop revision should be released on July 11, considering TFR declines in China & Americas over past few years, peak of world pop is likely to be under 10B now, I think it peaks at around 9.8B in 2070’s.
The fertility of foreign-born women exceeds 2.1 in several European countries, and in most countries they increase country-level fertility, especially in France and the US. It is the other way around in Hungary. #demography #fertlility #migration oecd-ilibrary.org/social-issues-…
In some countries, the share of births that are 3rd or higher births increased between 2000 and 2022 (see Spain, France, U.S., Japan). In other countries, it decreased. (See South Korea, Austria, Norway, Finland, Sweden) tinyurl.com/oecd24
Non parlo di fascismo continuamente. Ma non accetto che qualcuno ne faccia l’apologia. Avete rotto le balle. Il Trux, la X MAS, i busti, la Repubblica Sociale… tutta roba finita nella discarica della storia. Raggiungeteli lì.
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