Alf
@Macr0AlFounder of The Macro Compass: actionable & educational macro strategy. Former Head of $20bn Investment Portfolio. FREE newsletter: http://TheMacroCompass.subst
I can't begin to describe how toxic the ZIRP-era and the resulting outsized returns in speculative assets were. Just like with the dot-com bubble, it seems like a 5%+ risk-free rate can't stop animal spirits. Only a proper wipe-out can, and we haven't seen one yet.
If somebody is willing to pay $210k for this I am afraid rate hikes aren’t over yet.
EtherRock 95 purchased for 100 ETH ($209,990) 1 hr 55 mins ago (Nov-10-2023 04:13:35 PM +UTC) Txn: etherscan.io/tx/0x24fb5b8a1… #EtherRock #EtherRocks
Retail investors are often called “dumb money”. Yet I think they have 3 key advantages against institutional players and hedge funds - supposedly the “smart money”. 1/
…make use of your advantages but mostly work hard to fix your shortcomings. I am doing my best to provide useful macro insights to 140,000 investors: the next piece is coming soon but only… 13/
…to people who sign up to my FREE newsletter: You can do it here: TheMacroCompass.com 14/14
Liquidity is the most important macro variable to follow. Here is how it works. 1/
Money in this case means bank reserves, and banks can’t and won’t use reserves to buy stocks - the direct relationship and simple narrative suggested by mainstream macro commentators… …simply doesn’t exist. Concluding remarks: 15/
I am soon releasing an important update on liquidity dynamics - a lot is going on under the hood. You will only receive it if you sign up to my FREE newsletter here: TheMacroCompass.com It doesn't cost you anything and you'll get the piece directly in your inbox. 16/16
The economy is great, why are people ''feeling'' so poor? Well - how is this for a feeling? Since April 2020: 1) Inflation up a cumulative 20% 2) But median wages up only 12% 3) Monthly mortgage installments to buy the median house: up from $1000 to $2300 (!)
Macro investing is hard. As Peter Lynch famously said: ‘‘In this business, if you are good you are right six times out of ten. You are never going to be right nine times out of then’’. Here are some resources to become a better macro investor. 1/
Instead here are 3 underfollowed, high value macro accounts with a strong signal-to-noise ratio: @aRishisays @Brad_Setser @countdraghula 18/
I have been wrong and will continue to be, but I keep doing my best to provide 139,000+ investors with my macro insights and education on my newsletter. It's FREE, and I am releasing more pieces going forward: check it out here. 👇👇👇 n9.cl/FreeTMC 19/19
“This time is different”: right? - 16 months after a persistent yield curve inversion - Ongoing late-cycle curve steepening (the real deal) - Fiscal tailwinds fading away - Powell not pivoting anytime soon Yet “no worries, the economy can handle it”. You sure?
''When will something break in the US''? People are obsessed about this but I think they are missing the point. There are places where things are breaking already. 1/
If you are an institutional investor who liked this analysis, ping me up on Bloomberg for a free trial of my dedicated service. Otherwise just sign up to my free newsletter - more frequent and deeper macro insights (FREE) can be found here: TheMacroCompass.com 11/11
Me on Bloomberg = Alfonso Peccatiello. Yes I have a full name which sounds very Italian. Have a lovely day!
The picture shows a proper @bondstrategist and I randomly meeting in Japan. Same probability that the US will default under “pressure from bond vigilantes for excessive fiscal deficits”.
Just found out Japanese people use this very same Kanji when they refer to: - Gold - Money
United States Trends
- 1. Chiefs 67,7 B posts
- 2. Brock Bowers 5.302 posts
- 3. Heisman 19,4 B posts
- 4. Jeanty 15,3 B posts
- 5. Black Friday 775 B posts
- 6. Mahomes 19,3 B posts
- 7. Travis Hunter 26,1 B posts
- 8. Wanya Morris 1.354 posts
- 9. #RaiderNation 3.807 posts
- 10. Hawks 14,2 B posts
- 11. #LVvsKC 7.267 posts
- 12. Tommy Edman 4.213 posts
- 13. Bentley 4.306 posts
- 14. Al Michaels N/A
- 15. hailee 10,9 B posts
- 16. Pacheco 13,3 B posts
- 17. Aidan O’Connell 1.142 posts
- 18. Tre Tucker N/A
- 19. Hopkins 4.943 posts
- 20. Gundy 2.761 posts
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