Cern Basher
@CernrBasherCo-Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Brilliant Advice - My posts here are Not Financial Advice
They've Come for the Poets According to The Rundown: "A new study from the University of Pittsburgh researchers just revealed that AI can now generate poetry that readers not only struggle to distinguish from human - written texts but actually prefer over works by legendary poets…
A Shared Illusion A "shared illusion" refers to a false perception or belief that is held by a group of people, where everyone within that group experiences the same misconception about reality, essentially creating a collective illusion where they all agree on something that…
Challenge all the Narratives One of the great lessons for many from the 2024 election was the realization that the media constantly feds us a narrative - and that narrative is usually false. Well, further to that point, the narrative that we've been fed about Bitcoin is also…
If you dismiss Bitcoin as a Ponzi Scheme, you're missing something very important. You've listened to the wrong narrative. Something important is happening here, and it's not about Bitcoin being money, digital gold or some kind of speculative asset. If you're curious, take the…
In the long-term auto sales will not matter. In the short-term auto sales matters... so pay attention to AJ.
For those that may have missed my earlier posts on humanoid bots, here's a compendium of some relevant posts... a 23 part thread... 1) A deflation machine 2) An economic reboot 3) Humanoid bot motto 4) Bot napkin math at massive scale 5) Bot market vs EV market 6) Humanoid bots…
Tesla - A Probabilistic Valuation Approach There are many ways to value a company like Tesla, but the method that I prefer is the probabilistic valuation approach. It reflects the uncertain nature of the future and it allows you to assign probabilities to various scenarios (in…
Marslink: More excellent explanation from Phil…
Data to Mars After posting an article on Starlink, there have been many questions about Starlink’s “Marslink”—how data gets to and from Mars and at what speed. In addition, some confusing reporting has suggested that the interplanetary link would be 4 Megabits per second…
Bitcoin: A 30,000,000 X Return on Investment With Bitcoin crossing over $90,000 today, its market value was near $1.8 trillion --> up a mere 30 million times since its inception in 2010. Does that make Bitcoin overvalued? That's the wrong way to think about Bitcoin. It's not a…
A key way Bitcoin is different than equities: reflexivity. When a stock goes up, the multiple does up. At a certain point, people say, "this is over valued" and become less interested until the price goes down. Bitcoin is different. When Bitcoin's price goes up, people view it…
If you dismiss Bitcoin as a Ponzi Scheme, you're missing something very important. You've listened to the wrong narrative. Something important is happening here, and it's not about Bitcoin being money, digital gold or some kind of speculative asset. If you're curious, take the…
It's literally a national security issue
Let me be clear, the United States is being front run on its bitcoin strategy and must stand up the SBR as quickly as possible
Optimus Optimism? Well, not really. Morgan Stanley has modeled Optimus and has come up with a present value on a fleet of just 8.7 million Optimus in 2040 of $485 (see Steven's post below). Based on my modeling, Morgan Stanley is giving a 20% probability to the Optimus program…
Morgan Stanley has modeled a valuation for Tesla's humanoid program Optimus. It is not part of their current price target but they assign a present value of $485/sh. @CernBasher $TSLA
EVs & FSD: Dinosaurs don't see it coming. The dinosaurs don't believe it. The dinosaurs die off. #fsd
Interesting piece on Starlink from Phil...
Dan Ives' $400 Price Target for Tesla is Conservative In my view, Dan's price target is very low and it tells us that the Robotaxi and Optimus opportunities are barely factored into the current stock price. You only need a 5% probability for each of Robotaxi and Optimus in…
🚨 Dan Ives: We estimate the AI and autonomous opportunity is worth $1 trillion alone for $TSLA and we fully expect under a Trump White House these key initiatives will now get fast tracked as the federal regulatory spiderweb clears for Musk & Co. 🚀
More model details here... x.com/herbertong/sta…
🚨 MUST WATCH for all Tesla investors! Cern @cernbasher updated his Tesla financial models, covering 15 current and 14 future sources of revenue. Best of all, you decide what is Tesla stock’s present value? Hint: it’s north of $500! What price should $TSLA be right now?
The people feel it. The people know it. Listen to the people.
Crashed a Swiss Car Expo with the Cybertruck. All legacy automaker where there with their EVs offering testdrives - but no Tesla. Just wanted to make a statement, that the Cybertruck actually has the best EV tech built in and cannot be ignored. Well, the audience proved me right.
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